Big Money Defense Play
This morning there appears to be a play by the big players on Wall Street to disrupt the top formation that triggered earlier in the month on May 10. I think they will concentrate in two areas, the S&P and…Continue Reading →
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The Day Everything Changed
If you take a look back at our post on April15, you will see our Blow-Off comment, the day, when the downtrend line off the August 7, 2021 high of the S&P divided by the 10 year interest rate was…Continue Reading →
The Dollar
While the technical trends are down, a likely up move in interest rates is looming and it is hard for me to see the dollar falling as money pours into US Bonds as US seeks funding of its massive deficit.
Bitcoin, not protected by FDIC
Welcome to the new world, a digital account that investors appear to use as a digital savings account. They will come to the realization that the FDIC is no backstop. As I said recently, one factor that I think will…Continue Reading →
Things are Happening
In the background the slow rollover from Speculation to Value is occurring. Over the weekend I was going to put together a wide array of charts that illustrate where we have come from and the economic picture that has evolved….Continue Reading →
The 31 Day Rollover Period is Playing Out
As we mentioned yesterday it will probably take a while for the 31 day rollover period to play out, the period before the market comes unglued. It will be a good time to trade if you are of that persuasion,…Continue Reading →
Seven numbers to keep in Mind
4238, the all time High on the S&P in 2021.. 2. 2558, the value of the S&P using long term average P/E multiples.. 3. 3842, the average price of the S&P short position using our long term pricing model (position…Continue Reading →
The Fed Mandate is the Problem
Early morning thoughts.. How will the interest rate and equity markets react to this hot CPI number this morning. Who knows, but in the back of everyone’s mind is the belief that the FED will try to paper over the…Continue Reading →
What Happens when….
buying the break doesn’t work. We will soon find out, not necessarily today but over time. Keep in mind that this stage has been building for 13 months. The end of this unravelling is not in sight in my opinion.
Its all Quiet Now that it is Over
I have been talking about the Unraveling over the past week, which some have taken in various ways. For me it is more about the formal definition, which is ” an unwinding of something complicated”. It will be associated with…Continue Reading →