Archive for January 2023

Fed Day Tomorrow,

I don’t see much new info to add before the meeting. But my take here at Tuesday mid-day is that a majority of players remain bearish. This to me means that Climate Change induced investment plus short covering and under…Continue Reading →

What will Powell do?

First, Powell cannot give any indication that he will back off, even though the corner on inflation has been made. To follow through on his posture and rhetoric he is forced to do a small 0.25 rate raise. What does…Continue Reading →

The Bernanke Curse

As the markets twiddle around waiting the 7 trading days until the FED provides their next story, one has to look back at how we got here. It all started with the belief that smart PHD’s could run the economy…Continue Reading →

The FED, Leader or Forcer

Over the weekend The Motley Fool said: “This Recession Indicator Hasn’t Been Wrong in 56 Years: Here’s What It Says Happens Next”. What they are talking about is the Yield Curve and here are their further comments: “While there are…Continue Reading →

On the Edge

Here we show a 15 minute chart at 10:15 AM CST that allows one to drill down to the moment. What we see is the FED Fund rate is declining vs the average market rate, and yet the market rate…Continue Reading →

FED Meltdown

Today saw the breakdown of average market rates (30Y+10Y+5Y+2Y) with a close of 3.60. Now the focus will turn to the all-important 2 year which at 3.70 will trigger all kinds of mind changes. The Talk of 5 and 6…Continue Reading →


FED program about to blow-up. Market rates are lower today, breaking through support levels, FED funds rates are up, yet the important 30yr vs 10yr is rising, that says market rates have topped. Here is the ave mkt rate chart,…Continue Reading →

The 2023 Theme

For me it is simply, “Economic Results will be better than Expected”. At the moment we are kind of at a tight spot for the following reasons: The FED is hell bent on destabilizing the economy by putting upward pressure…Continue Reading →

Who Wins Here ?

The battle between the FED and the markets on rates is front and center. My vote goes to the market. Here is what Bloomberg is saying this morning. An as-expected cooling in US inflation further fanned the flames of a fight between the market…Continue Reading →