Bitcoin at Zero…
Bitcoin at zero. Could it happen, probably not but it could get close at some point in the coming year. It is an idea with no economic value, totally based on no one selling. Its Achilles heel will be mass…Continue Reading →
Archive for November 2024
Reality 2024+…
Here is something to think about, I hear many conservatives say, since the election, that Trump may not be the Ideologue that the liberals feel he is. What he has is a sense of the direction that the people of…Continue Reading →
NVDA Sell Signal Confirmed…
Today we saw the completion of valuation pricing of NVDA. The sell signal was confirmed with a lot volatility, but it stuck. Now we move on to pricing of the Tariff effect on the broader stock market. This started on…Continue Reading →
Speculative Demand Receding…
Speculative Demand Index, here is what we use in our model. You can see that it had a pop up on Nov 5 after the election and today declined below the support level. The recent high was on Sept 26,…Continue Reading →
The New Reality…
The Markets Fatal Flaw in my view, it is not that Forward P/E ratios are high, it is the expected earnings part of the equation. Turbulent disruptive times do not make for happy strong earnings. As market participants adjust to…Continue Reading →
The Neutral Interest Rate…
What is the Neutral Interest rate? First, this is a fascinating day, big macro economic things are happening, and Jim Cramer is instead concentrating on old news, i.e. the Digital Age, the driver of the market for the last couple…Continue Reading →
The Backup Walls are Crumbling…
Joe Biden had a good economy for a number of reasons. First, he was aggressive in getting the FED and the Administration to work together in turning around the pandemic panic. Secondly, he believed that there was a War on…Continue Reading →
Are the Big Guys Running…
The Big Guys seem to be running as the Trump story unfolds. I always watch three stocks to see what the Big Money is doing, i.e. the base where inequality sits. Three stocks are a good representation, KKR, BLK, and…Continue Reading →
Top to Crash…
Any ideas out there as to why the interim periods between market highs and start of crashes have been getting tighter progressively. So just looking at some monthly data charts I see this: In 1929, Aug 1929 high to Apr…Continue Reading →
It was the Economy, or was it?…
Over the past few days, I have wrestled with what all this means. Back in 1996 I switched to the Democratic Party, a big switch from my first election in 1964 when I voted Republican. In 2003 after going into…Continue Reading →