In the background the slow rollover from Speculation to Value is occurring. Over the weekend I was going to put together a wide array of charts that illustrate where we have come from and the economic picture that has evolved….Continue Reading →
As we mentioned yesterday it will probably take a while for the 31 day rollover period to play out, the period before the market comes unglued. It will be a good time to trade if you are of that persuasion,…Continue Reading →
4238, the all time High on the S&P in 2021.. 2. 2558, the value of the S&P using long term average P/E multiples.. 3. 3842, the average price of the S&P short position using our long term pricing model (position…Continue Reading →
Early morning thoughts.. How will the interest rate and equity markets react to this hot CPI number this morning. Who knows, but in the back of everyone’s mind is the belief that the FED will try to paper over the…Continue Reading →
buying the break doesn’t work. We will soon find out, not necessarily today but over time. Keep in mind that this stage has been building for 13 months. The end of this unravelling is not in sight in my opinion.
I have been talking about the Unraveling over the past week, which some have taken in various ways. For me it is more about the formal definition, which is ” an unwinding of something complicated”. It will be associated with…Continue Reading →
The shockingly poor employment number this morning may have a message imbedded in it. Maybe low interest rates are a signal that things are terrible, people and companies are not getting a growth message. And we see how well the…Continue Reading →
As the market unravelling moves forward the big question is where do investors hide. As our interest rate adjusted charts show, the ones that we have presented over the past couple of weeks, the first move was into various bond…Continue Reading →
Over the past eight months, since the election, we have heard a lot about rotation. And in a sense we saw a bit of that, switches between various equity sectors. Today we are seeing the first real rotation, money out…Continue Reading →
Powell and the Fed are coming up to a learning moment, the moment when bottom-up and middle-out replace trickle-down which has been dominant for 40 years. Where will they get their signals and smiles, have to start counting buildouts rather…Continue Reading →