The flattening of the yield curve has completed its job of forecasting weak growth. Now we expect it to be a background factor until we reach the end of the asset deflation downturn. This asset downturn has barely started. At…Continue Reading →
Archive for March 2019
The mystery of why we probably are headed into a recession is more about international trade than some other factors being mentioned. Here is our take on some trade related issues. Dominant US Presence In general the US as the…Continue Reading →
Big Picture Doesn’t matter what Powell does or says this week. The issues driving the economy are Bernanke’s QE’s and Trump’s tax cuts. Old news and unproductive for Real Growth. We monitor the deflationary scorecard. Cross trends for stocks, commodities,…Continue Reading →
The Environment At the moment I feel lost in an environment where economic fundamentals are ignored. The Atlanta Fed GDPNOW estimate for the first quarter has been updated three times and still is at 0.4 %. Economic reports add information…Continue Reading →
First as to the Max 8 I am old enough to point out that most of my flying hours as a passenger have been on 727’s. I remember when I had a choice I tried to avoid the 737 as…Continue Reading →
After corresponding with some of our readers we have edited the explanations of the chart to make it more readable.
Short Term Stuff A combination of the tail end of large growth trends in the US deficit, Corporate debt, and Personal debt, knife edge issues, appear to be have had an effect in pushing 30 year interest rates up since…Continue Reading →