Best Guess, 10 year rates to Rise
What ? While the long-term trend is to lower rates, we would not be surprised at a short-term rise in the 10 year rate, quite possibly to a new high for the year (200 day average rate is 2.84% )…Continue Reading →
Archive for April 2019
A Dramatic Test Setup
The efforts of the FED and Washington to jawbone the markets out of the Christmas eve swoon are increasingly impressive, but the key question is, does it change the Macro environment. We will soon find out if January 26, 2018…Continue Reading →
Interest Rate Rise Peaked ?
Here is the monthly chart on 30 year interest rates going back to 2000. I would not be surprised to see at a minimum the 2.5 rate tested over the next 18 months, and likely a blowout down to 1.5…Continue Reading →
Make or Break Week, was it just a Dead Cat Bounce
The Verdict The verdict is still out on the stock market rally since Christmas Eve 2018. It has been impressive, but what does it say about the next 18 months. Prognosticators out in Force It seems that many want to…Continue Reading →
Who will be left holding the Bag
As tariff and corporate tax turmoil put a shadow over the world economy and hope and hype still rein over everything, it will be interesting to see which country or group of corporations will take the hit. Will it be…Continue Reading →
The Pending Surprise
In my opinion, what happened with Lindsay this morning, see below, is the primary market factor going forward, Corporate CEO trade based optimism has led them into ignoring real demand and has induced the building of unsold inventory. Ironically government…Continue Reading →
Mauldins View
As long term readers know, we only mention a few information sources that we follow. One is John Mauldin’s letter, here is the one from last Saturday. It echo’s much of my take on things currently. John Mauldin 4/6/2019…Continue Reading →
US companies’ tax windfall fuels record share buybacks.
Yahoo Finance headline today that tells a lot of the story of this economy. US companies’ tax windfall fuels record share buybacks. This is what we tried to warn against concerning the Trump Tax Changes, the fact that it would…Continue Reading →
Reality vs Hype
Is there no resistance to this phenomenon? It seems a bit like unprecedented times, with the FED caving to White House pressure and an orchestrated output of known negatives being declared positives by the White House.