A MIX OF: MARKETS / POLITICS / AND THE ECONOMY
Our belief is that the markets are a reflection of the interrelationship of political and economic force
March 15, 2020 Watch our blog going forward as the GREAT RESET unfolds.
__Our Approach is to provide a Fresh Viewpoint on Economic Factors Affecting U.S. and Global Markets, and that requires implementation of Cyclical and sometimes Contrarian measures__
We would tend to agree with what Arthur Schlesinger Jr (1917-2007) wrote at one point, A true cycle….is self generating. It cannot be determined, short of catastrophe, by external events. War, depression, inflations, may not heighten or complicate moods, but the cycle rolls on, self-contained, self-sufficient and autonomous…..the roots of this cyclical self-sufficiency lie deep in the natural life of humanity. There is a cyclical pattern in organic nature—–in the tides, in the seasons, in night and day, in the symbols and diastole of the human heart.
In looking at the past 40 years and tying Politics to Economics we view the factors below as key to understanding measurement of activity and direction.
Keeping in mind that the overall actions were designed to support markets not the people of the country, the result has been growing inequality.
1. Supply Side Economics…………….Reagan
2. Greenspan Bubble machine………Bush-Clinton
3. Unfunded Irag War………………….Bush
4. Bernanke FED QE policy………….Obama
5. Isolationist Economics…………….Trump
Our approach provides support for investors in times when the underlying economic approach reaches a tipping point.
Those periods in recent history are:
What we believed at the inception of this website in early 2008:
At the time we started this website we had been following the currency, commodity, and stock markets for some 40 years.
Our goal is to provide a background to economic issues that were bubbling up in the 2005-2008 period. In the U.S. and the world things had gone full circle from the base of the 1930’s Depression through the WWII period, 17 years, 1929-1946, into the relatively strong growth period of 1947 – 1979 as the World rebuilt.
Going into the 1980’s the political view seemed to be that the economy was solid and it would be a good time to privatize more parts of the economy and thereby move money to the top 10 % of the population. Many factors played into this including taxation policies, globalization, and the restructuring of the goals of Corporations in order to pay employees less and send more money to the stock market. Stock buy backs and eventually Government bailouts, and then the icing on the cake, the QE2 and QE3 programs were employed to try and halt the unravelling but in reality increased the inequality relationships.
2018 – 2020 Update: Politics have become a contentious part of the public discourse and we now have a country led by wealthy reactionaries who are trying to run on the mantra set out in 1980. They say that they are independent populists whose main goal is to increase the incomes of those in the bottom 90 % of the population and see this groups income as a percent of the pie increase. Initially we hoped that would be true, but the 2018 tax cuts for the wealthy and the market bubble that began in June 2019, set off by Trump and the FED, pushed interest rates to unrealistically low levels and fostered hyper-speculation in the Stock Market. This was a final confirmation that the country and the economy were on the wrong track, a coordinated move of money to the top. See charts here:
Now we believe, March 15, 2020, my 77th birthday, that we are in the setup for the GREAT RESET.
Watch our blog going forward as the GREAT RESET unfolds.