A lot of nonsense is floating around. Over the weekend a Citibank economist said he could see nothing that could stop the Fed effect from pushing the market higher, like forever.. Well, I think there are two things to keep…Continue Reading →
What i am referring to here is the upcoming and probably impossible struggle to get back to the Old Normal. That in essence is what is behind the stock market rally since late March. The market set its sights on…Continue Reading →
Back on August 7, 2020 we outlined that the Macro Picture had changed for some reason. We cited two key factors to watch, interest rates and the political picture. We also pointed out that the data pointed to something going…Continue Reading →
Traders like to catch the final blow-off. Today’s situation is obvious. The market is running wild. Reality is not even on the page. See below our updated Fed Influence Algo chart with the S&P at 3470 and Nasdaq 100 at…Continue Reading →
What I am referring to is our more detailed in-house version of our Fed Influence chart that we have shown here before. What we have been seeing is a broadening trigger window with the Apex of the pattern holding. To…Continue Reading →
An important thing to keep in mind is that while the pattern around the late February sell signal was much the same as the current signal, in so many ways it was much different. The late February signal just triggered…Continue Reading →
I keep being asked how the macro algo could be pointing to seismic change. I guess my answer is simple. As much as one doesn’t want to bring politics into the market equation, I do think that with the Biden/Harris…Continue Reading →
This is good early action for a 2 to 3 year market cycle. It will take some back and forth volatility to put in place the wringing out of the excesses created by Bernanke, Yellen, and Trump. Powell is kind…Continue Reading →
Markets have a short memory, the last 5 days don’t necessarily validate the past five months action. Early Sell Signal As of the opening today we have a tentative Macro Sell signal on the opening. The question today has been,…Continue Reading →
As we sit here today and observe the markets making a new high and await the start of the Macro Re-Adjustment that is on track to start tomorrow, it is easy to second guess a long term view. You would…Continue Reading →