I would expect that the last wave of this reflation hope scenario, ie, higher interest rates, have probably gone up about as much as can be expected without confirmation that economic activity has improved. With that said, the interest rate…Continue Reading →
That is what we are seeing. Companies are completing the buildup, building inventories of raw material. Consequently interest rates reacted. Now comes the proof in the pudding. Have the majority of consumers already spent, thinking prices are going to go…Continue Reading →
Here is one of my favorite big picture charts that we have shared many times. The Market puzzle chart compares the S&P 500, Gold, Commodities, and the 2 year vs 30 year interest rate yield curve. (these are indexes based…Continue Reading →
Enough said for today. Review our posts for the past week for more depth.
Shifting gears from my last blog post on the Macro Cycle outlook. I have taken a couple of days to settle in and not blog as the markets stall. The explainers are now out in force. Just watch two daily…Continue Reading →
The euphoria and mania surrounding todays markets are in my view, characteristics of a recession rollover. Trading or investing with a defensive posture may have seemed brutal since last August but with all the hope injected into the pandemic and…Continue Reading →
The FED fund rate is on the Brink of being pushed higher by the FED as the 3 month rate is approaching zero this week. This at a time when longer term rates, the 10 year, 20 year, and 30…Continue Reading →
To me it would appear that Hope has approached a peak level, and now reality will start to become a bigger input into the equation. Stocks and commodities are culminating the move that started last August, a move based on…Continue Reading →
That is what I see in the market action this week, except for the Robinhood excitement. I guess it is too bad that the Robinhood traders had not read the Bunker Hunt silver story from the 80’s, but now they…Continue Reading →
For any long time follower of this blog, you know it is not about trading…more about a philosophy of how economics and politics mesh with the markets in a macro sense. And we all know that history shows how civilizations…Continue Reading →