The Fed Overstepped…

And lost its credibility. A few factors stand out. In a sense this was bound to happen after the 12 years of artificial markets, starting with Bernanke’s QE2 in 2011. Neither the markets nor the Fed knew what was really…Continue Reading →

Fed Day Tomorrow,

I don’t see much new info to add before the meeting. But my take here at Tuesday mid-day is that a majority of players remain bearish. This to me means that Climate Change induced investment plus short covering and under…Continue Reading →

What will Powell do?

First, Powell cannot give any indication that he will back off, even though the corner on inflation has been made. To follow through on his posture and rhetoric he is forced to do a small 0.25 rate raise. What does…Continue Reading →

The Bernanke Curse

As the markets twiddle around waiting the 7 trading days until the FED provides their next story, one has to look back at how we got here. It all started with the belief that smart PHD’s could run the economy…Continue Reading →

The FED, Leader or Forcer

Over the weekend The Motley Fool said: “This Recession Indicator Hasn’t Been Wrong in 56 Years: Here’s What It Says Happens Next”. What they are talking about is the Yield Curve and here are their further comments: “While there are…Continue Reading →

On the Edge

Here we show a 15 minute chart at 10:15 AM CST that allows one to drill down to the moment. What we see is the FED Fund rate is declining vs the average market rate, and yet the market rate…Continue Reading →

FED Meltdown

Today saw the breakdown of average market rates (30Y+10Y+5Y+2Y) with a close of 3.60. Now the focus will turn to the all-important 2 year which at 3.70 will trigger all kinds of mind changes. The Talk of 5 and 6…Continue Reading →