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It’s Over

All the FED posturing that we have been enduring since June 16, 2022 is over in my opinion. As of yesterday they have succeeded in puncturing the bubble, congratulations. Of course, if they had done their job correctly, we all…Continue Reading →

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Sector Performance Update, with Special Dollar Comments

Here is the sector table updated through last Friday. Note the sectors listed as Biotech, Solar, EV, and Chips make up 80 % of our portfolio. Looking back to when the bottom of the market started on May 11, 2022…Continue Reading →

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Sunday Afternoon, Playing with Numbers

I am having a little fun this afternoon. I went to the trading screen and ran some numbers show relationships between 2-year interest rates and each of the main three indices, S&P 500, 30 year bonds, and CRB commodity prices….Continue Reading →

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Powell/FED/Performance Review

Ending Easy Money and moving Fed Funds rate to 3.0-3.25 is a big plus 1. Economic and Production Stability enhancement should be the number one FED objective, on this score they get a minus 3. This score is based on…Continue Reading →

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Inflation is in Retreat

A little update this morning where in spite of all the FED encouraged carnage, the comparison of market value between today and 6-6-22 when inflation and commodities peaked is revelatory. See sectors ranked below. More good real news today, both…Continue Reading →

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Early in the Setup…

With the huge cross currents evolving we are posting tomorrows blog tonight. I am no stranger in getting on a theme early, well before the 50, 100, 200 day trend lines confirm. In this phase I am concentrating on how…Continue Reading →

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What Happened Yesterday…

The numbers and charts say that it was the end of something, not the beginning. Let’s look at the footprints. The FED made a big mistake by not ending easy money in August 2020. They compounded the mistake by adding…Continue Reading →

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History Tells a Story…

We have taken a look at what has transpired in the markets since the start of the Bubble on August 7. 2020. The analysis looks at sectors and how they performed percentage wise during various time frames created by both…Continue Reading →

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Tomorrow…

Everyone is waiting for tomorrow. Powell may find that valuing stability over chaos will help him to bury his past mistakes. Like, saying 3.5 % is where we plan to keep rates for the next two years, put to rest…Continue Reading →

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The Bubble Creators

It would appear that the Bubble Creators may not have been that smart. They were financed by the FED, and propelled by a financialization process based around globalization and monetization. Real growth never entered the picture. Now they have no…Continue Reading →

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The Yield Curve is Flashing a “things are getting better sign”

You may recall that a couple of weeks ago we pointed out that the first thing to watch out for will be the 2yr vs 3 mo yield curve, I.e. when the 2yr starts gaining on the 3 mo, that…Continue Reading →

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Repeating

No FED pivot. Today’s consumer price number doesn’t change the expected 0.75 hike at next meeting. We are still dealing with supply side inflation not demand based inflation. The most important thing is consumer prices are the last to change….Continue Reading →

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The Market Catalyst is here…

A Bloomberg story published tonight on the dollar and how its strength is affecting world markets could be a catalyst for pushing the FED to rethink how for it wants to go, especially if inflation numbers this month confirm a…Continue Reading →

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The Bubble and the FED

The central factor in the markets for the remainder of the year is how tough is the FED really going to be if some key inflation factors roll over. By my reading of the total economy charts, which sum up…Continue Reading →

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The Great In-Between

I see us in the Great In-Between period in the markets, the FED is running the technicals, the people are running the fundamentals. The next FED meeting will probably be the last of the FED hikes, then they will just…Continue Reading →

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