Things are happening. It looks to me like the primary market buyers today are those being forced to exit bearish macro positioning. We have yet to start the bullish macro phase. See the RUT/NDX relationship chart here which we have…Continue Reading →

Commentators this week are almost unanimous that the market is overbought. Yet, the market may not really be overbought. Essentially, only the SPX, and NDQ are being bought by players, everything else is being sold. Net macro position is zilch. …Continue Reading →

But first everyone has to get used to normal interest rates, the 3.5 to 5.5 % range. Happy Thanksgiving.

Update here on what we call the Gundlach 9/20 Fed response, getting long bonds, stocks, and commodities. This is kind of a macro thing, no decisions needed. It broke out on Tuesday, a little back-off opportunity today for those who…Continue Reading →

Today’s action has elements that suggest that we will see a strong 2024 with the small caps having the most potential, Russell is up around 5 percent today. I don’t think it is because the Russell has been relentlessly sold…Continue Reading →

Are we in a bull market and are the small caps a real steal here? Last week it looks a lot like equity investors were willing to buy everything based on the Fed pivot, but they’re still very skeptical about…Continue Reading →

Rates have rolled over. Relax and be patient. A little chart thing I watch for short term indications, the 7 day ave vs the 50 day average is triggering down today on the composite rate average, the average of the…Continue Reading →

I have always identified myself as a contrarian, or some would say a cynic, and that may be the case. But these days I feel my driving force may be more like Common Sense. Today’s headwinds are large. Eleven years…Continue Reading →

The rally last week got everyone’s attention. My take on this…We hear there are more bulls than bears after last week. Probably true, problem is, a majority of the bulls are not long anything close to their normal position if…Continue Reading →

Powell’s comments, my interpretation at 2:30 PM CDT. 1. Economy is showing strength, making us think about more hikes down the road. 2. So hiking is the bias, however progress on inflation is continuing. 3. Part of the positive story…Continue Reading →

We all have been waiting for the bears who have kept trying to short the market to get done with another of their attempts. Halloween should bring an end to the foolishness. Here is the index chart for our Climate…Continue Reading →

Today’s 4.9 % GDP number has Powell talking to himself. The Atlanta FED has been saying that the economy is perking right along, while the smarty’s in Washington have been downplaying the story. But, here it is, the New Economy…Continue Reading →

Volatility is marking this level of the long bond. It is all part of the market focusing on short term negatives while strong growth through technology based GDP growth is controlling the overall scene. Back in March 2021 our downside…Continue Reading →

CNBC commentators this morning have so eloquently stated the obvious this morning. “there is nothing that we see that indicates any reason to buy any stock”. What more do we need to feel the total bearishness that has over shadowed…Continue Reading →

Bond target area being appreciated. Here is the chart forecast that we have presented many times since its creation in March 2021 when the 140 support area on TLT was violated. The breakout hole to the upside is now in…Continue Reading →