You might want to look back at our post of 6/20/19.  We like being out of the long bond position that we held for a long time, many months, years. The long term 10 year yield chart is looking more…Continue Reading →

Here we are looking at Independence Day 2019, and yet.. The real July 4th event is Trump policies taking down the economy and threatening the Federal Reserve if they don’t bail him out. This is what losing your independence is…Continue Reading →

We have been talking for some time about why a long bond position makes sense.  The exuberance today says to us, time to get your money out of the bond market. We continue to like gold, and are moving the…Continue Reading →

What if the real story is: Over the past 9 months the interest rate markets did their job of forecasting an economic downturn by flattening the yield curve. The FED is now trying to play catch up by steepening the…Continue Reading →

The manipulation of the markets has reached unprecedented levels it seems, and probably was to be anticipated. Two charts here kind of show the picture. First an update of our long standing Fracture Chart. Powell’s comments on the possibility of…Continue Reading →

On that day the game makers in Washington convinced the world that they had everything figured out.  The market did make a new high in the following days by a percent or so, but now the chickens are coming home…Continue Reading →

In spite of all the mayhem in Washington, May 1 2019 was the important date to the stock market. The hype since January 2017 is running out of steam. The Fed doesn’t matter Now. China doesn’t matter Now. Trump’s next…Continue Reading →

Following up on Themes The Economic Fracture The little hiccup in the market yesterday occurred at an important level and is the first indication of a change in the bounce since 12/24/18, other than a brief change on 1/29/19. The…Continue Reading →

What ? While the long-term trend is to lower rates, we would not be surprised at a short-term rise in the 10 year rate, quite possibly to a new high for the year (200 day average rate is 2.84% )…Continue Reading →

The efforts of the FED and Washington to jawbone the markets out of the Christmas eve swoon are increasingly impressive, but the key question is, does it change the Macro environment.  We will soon find out if January 26, 2018…Continue Reading →

Here is the monthly chart on 30 year interest rates going back to 2000.  I would not be surprised to see at a minimum the 2.5 rate tested over the next 18 months, and likely a blowout down to 1.5…Continue Reading →

The Verdict The verdict is still out on the stock market rally since Christmas Eve 2018.  It has been impressive, but what does it say about the next 18 months. Prognosticators out in Force It seems that many want to…Continue Reading →

As tariff and corporate tax turmoil put a shadow over the world economy and hope and hype still rein over everything, it will be interesting to see which country or group of  corporations will take the hit.  Will it be…Continue Reading →

In my opinion, what happened with Lindsay this morning, see below, is the primary market factor going forward, Corporate CEO trade based optimism has led them into ignoring real demand and has induced the building of unsold inventory.  Ironically government…Continue Reading →

As long term readers know, we only mention a few information sources that we follow. One is John Mauldin’s letter, here is the one from last Saturday.  It echo’s much of my take on things currently.   John Mauldin  4/6/2019…Continue Reading →