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Most Important Setup Day in 49 Years, for me

We have been waiting since January 2018 for a setup to develop that would add up all the data points.  We got it today. The FED has learned its lesson, they see increasing government deficits as the key risk going…Continue Reading →

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Bubble Jumpers. Markets Refuse to give up Stupdity

What is a Bubble Jumper? If the Stock Bubble is not working, jump to the Bond Bubble. As our post yesterday pointed out, there is only one market that is not inflicted with hysteria at the moment, the 3 month…Continue Reading →

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Interest Rate Markets may be getting ahead of Themselves

  All the clamor and market action on interest rates lately seem to be small picture actions. See below a recent study that we have done using a Normalized Interest Rate base.  

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Playing with the 200 Day Average

The Big Spill After the big spill of the past few days we will probably see a little consolidation above the 200 day average and some trading in the 2850 to 2940 area of the S&P.  Two days of closes…Continue Reading →

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Dow Jones Crash, There will be bounces

Headed much lower While there will be bounces before, we are looking at 2600 area on S&P for first of many support areas.

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Dow Jones Crash, Major Cycle Sell Signal Confirmed on close today

Market is setup for a major down move from here.

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The Market is Coiled for a Breakout, and the VIX is Silent

Breakout is setup in Stocks Direction is going to be either sharply higher or sharply lower, maybe today…. We think lower, but in this day and age…???

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Dow Jones Crash, Who Knows the Why and When

The Market is going to Crash Why and When are the two unknowns. So many reasons are available.

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Dow Jones Crash, Conflicting Inputs Today

The stock market feels heavy today, Yet it seems to be holding its own for the moment.  My view, the market has two hopes (both of which I believe will unravel) that it is trying to hold onto: it still…Continue Reading →

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The Game is Moving to a Higher Level Now that Bond Bubble Blow-OFF is confirmed.

Which Game ? The game between the White House and the Fed, or said another way Trump Vs Powell. The White House is trying to set the stage with tweets, but it has no real power in this contest. The…Continue Reading →

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Negative Rates are bad, the World is becoming Wiser….with update

Central Banks are Learning Draghi’s difficulties at the ECB yesterday illustrated that low-low yields are not a good or easy answer. The Powell Dilemma Next Up is the September Federal Reserve Meeting and our guess is that they are going…Continue Reading →

Posted in Analytic Fundamentals, Big Picture, Fed Comments | Leave a comment

Dow Jones Crash, this is where you hammer on your short positions

Overnight we have seen the 2960 -2976 S&P resistance hit.  Today and maybe early tomorrow will be your opportunity to get it on.

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Dow Jones Crash, in Countdown stage

First Wave Game Markets are playing a first round game of pushing down rates, creating a huge bond bubble as  it tries to keep the other bubble, stocks in place. This Bubble Break will be huge It will include both…Continue Reading →

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Dow Jones Crash, Final Setup

Talk About the Dow While everyone talks about the Dow, the S&P is where the signals are generated. Analyze the S&P We look for a tight range ending quickly into maybe mid-September or maybe tomorrow, with the S&P flipping around…Continue Reading →

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Dow Jones Update, Ironic, Hope is Trump’s governing word, not Obama’s

As the scenario that started in January 2018 continues to unfold, Hope on the part of Trump believers has been the dominant word on the economic front.  That hope is dominated by stock market positions fueled by stock buybacks. To…Continue Reading →

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