Big Picture Doesn’t matter what Powell does or says this week. The issues driving the economy are Bernanke’s QE’s and Trump’s tax cuts. Old news and unproductive for Real Growth. We monitor the deflationary scorecard. Cross trends for stocks, commodities,…Continue Reading →

The Environment At the moment I feel lost in an environment where economic fundamentals are ignored.  The Atlanta Fed GDPNOW estimate for the first quarter has been updated three times and still is at 0.4 %.  Economic reports add information…Continue Reading →

First as to the Max 8 I am old enough to point out that most of my flying hours as a passenger have been on 727’s.  I remember when I had a choice I tried to avoid the 737 as…Continue Reading →

After corresponding with some of our readers we have edited the explanations of the chart to make it more readable.

Short Term Stuff A combination of the tail end of large growth trends in the US deficit, Corporate debt, and Personal debt, knife edge issues, appear to be have had an effect in pushing 30 year interest rates up since…Continue Reading →

A higher than expected GDP number for the fourth QTR today, has the bulls celebrating.  One has to keep in mind that GDP is based on what we Make, not what we Sell.  This is important in this report as…Continue Reading →

Today’s market action supposedly based on the wonderful things happening with tariffs makes me ponder.  And when I ponder I like to look back at what investors were thinking at important turning points in the past. So let’s look at…Continue Reading →

We have been in the midst of almost a month long bounce in the stock indexes as the guru’s keep telling us about how the 4th quarter decline was an aberration, all about the FED,  and thing are going to…Continue Reading →

A Production Based Economy It seems that the theory of the economy for the past 40 years has been based on production, ie. do what ever you need to produce more, whether it be funny money, government created deficits, or…Continue Reading →

After some recent reading and research it seems quite extraordinary to me that leading economist’s are not speaking out on what the Trump Tariff initiative is really all about. It is not really about China, certainly they are a part…Continue Reading →

Fade the first move out of a quiet period. Sidepoint.. Reading “Globalists” by Quinn Slobodian. Enlightening as to how the neoliberal movement involving Hayek developed. It is interesting to see how the Thatcher/Reagan/Friedman conservatives tried to piggyback on that work,…Continue Reading →

What we are talking about is the damage that the Tariff issue is doing to the production chain. Producers are seeing inventories backup and to date are eating the costs while they hope for a resolution. Bottom line, when a…Continue Reading →

Market was up against Big Resistance Basis the S&P the market has put some time in the 2620 – 2720 no-mans land price area. After using up a lot of energy over the past 16 days in that area there…Continue Reading →

We are seeing a lot of stocks, including the Fangs and the S&P index bouncing back up to the 200 day average.  Pretty impressive, but it does not negate the November-December rollover. Probably my main concern is whether Fed Chairman…Continue Reading →