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S&P 4566.6 …

The market has been building a valuation top for an inordinate amount of time since March 23. It appears that the reason it has taken so long is the market has been waiting on the AI capstone, NVDA. It now…Continue Reading →

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Traders are Afraid of Missing Out..

The market continues it stretch of valuations, unhealthy stocks with unhealthy patterns are being bought because the leaders are getting too expensive. This provides an illusion of a broadening market. April 19 was the bottom of this trading bounce and…Continue Reading →

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A Slowing Consumer…

It will be fascinating to see how the markets interpretation of the PPI, CPI, and Consumer sales numbers end up by Friday’s close. Big question, is a slowing consumer going to be a factor. We will see. Update at 10:40…Continue Reading →

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AI Frenzy is Over for Now…

One more thing, the AI Buildout stocks are tired. The NVDA,MSFT,GOOG,IBM,AMZN,TM,CAT,TT,BLD mix is rolling over. They have led the bull market in stocks since April 10, 2023. They peaked on April 15, 2024, had a whiplash down day on April…Continue Reading →

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The Rest of the Year…

As mentioned last week, we are going into a transition, one where the stocks that have had all the puffiness will see the air pulled out. Once that is completed, sometime over the next month, probably sooner rather than later…Continue Reading →

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This is a Time of Transition…

Time of transition, consumer is slowing down a bit, interest rates heading down in late summer. Tech stocks will have to deal with slowing economy, Russell stocks will benefit from lower rates. Now that we have the Fed and employment…Continue Reading →

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Confusion Reigns…

We are now into a new market environment. It is no longer about AI, Inflation, Interest rates, or the Fed, it is now about Tech over-valuation. What this means is that the next shoe to drop is a sharp decline…Continue Reading →

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Strategy Time…

As the topping phase of the first stage of the 2022 to 2026 Bull Market continues clicking into place we are looking down the road to how this all will unfold and what strategy will work. Cycle work suggests that…Continue Reading →

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Peek-a-boo phase of an Anxious Market…

I doubt that the market moves we are seeing this week are about GDP, interest rates, or inflation. It is totally about the market having a hard time coming to grips with over-valuation AI based metrics. Meta was the canary….Continue Reading →

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The Core is Melting Down…

The AI Buildout has been the whole game for the past 18 months and it was good. But, it reached a valuation barrier and now will probably see some back-off. Here is an update for our AI Buildout stocks Index…Continue Reading →

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Establishing a Swing Point

We are seeing a nice little bounce in the markets from Friday’s lows. Today’s highs should mark the other side of the swing point calculation which is: (Friday’s low + today’s high)/2. This should help to measure the next leg…Continue Reading →

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Waiting for the other shoe to Drop…

Dangerous territory. Market players are working hard to influence the markets through the S&P. SPX 5140 was a measured move point which was hit on March 4. The general market topped on March 8 when SPX hit 5189. Today the…Continue Reading →

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AI Buildout is Hitting a Wall.

A follow-up to the post of April 4. Here is the AI Buildout Index chart as of the close. It tried to take out the high of the pivot day. April 4, and failed today. The gold vertical line corresponds…Continue Reading →

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Selling Momentum Trigger..

We could be seeing the setup for a 1987 style crash here, short but monumental. The fact that the index of the AI buildout stocks (NVDA, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, IBM, TM, TT, CAT, BLD) had a higher all time high…Continue Reading →

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Time for the Melt-Up / Crash Crowd

Maybe time to take a stroll. Since June 2022 when this Bull Market started we have seen a 5X rally in the Bitcoin/NVDA Index and 31 % rally in the Combined Market Index (SPX+NDQ+RUT). It has been a good run…Continue Reading →

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