A lot of basic volatility has been occurring since the Bond Vigilantes attacked the markets on August 3rd. Interest rates went up and key markets did a little back off, but by and large, major indices have tried to ignore…Continue Reading →

What has been learned this morning, probably that short term interest rates have topped for the moment. I am watching copper closely this morning as it has a high correlation to AI Stocks, it is not acting that well. If…Continue Reading →

Starting on August 3rd we have seen equity markets follow a stairstep pattern of coming to a reckoning with rising interest rates. I try to keep it simple by monitoring eleven different indices for the underlying movement. At this moment…Continue Reading →

The picture is getting darker as the C-4 sell signal builds on the S&P 500. Previous patterns of that signal point would indicate that the trigger is close to being pulled. There are a lot of possibilities of what that…Continue Reading →

What we are witnessing since August 3rd, has been a long time coming. I am posting a chart here of an index I created, SPX (the S&P 500 ) divided by TBT (the short bond ETF) starting in 2008. What…Continue Reading →

If you go back to our posts from August 31st to date, it should be apparent that the theme is that the “Trump Stock Market Manipulation based on liquidity based around increasing government deficits” has hit a brick wall. That…Continue Reading →

Update on our Models C-0 to C-4 market crash signals that we outlined in our blog on September10th. As of today’s close we have a C-4 signal on our broad eight factor unweighted index, (SPX+NDX+RUT+DJI+DJT+XLF+XLY), that is significant. What will…Continue Reading →

Occasionally I chat with CoPilot AI on the state of things in the market, today I asked: What inner stock market crosscurrents led to the 1987 stock market crash Copilot said: The 1987 crash was not caused by a single…Continue Reading →

To me we are witnessing a confrontation between the 1) the Broad Economy, 2) the Commodity/Inflation Economy, and the 3) AI Build Economy. After the bond vigilantes took over on August 3rd, our Climate Tech Model has had a difficult…Continue Reading →

I am talking about what occurred in the time period between August 8 and September 18. On the face of it, that is what the market seems to be saying. There seems to be the conclusion that higher rates are…Continue Reading →

The Climate Model cut its long climate stock signals in half back on September 1 and now will be going beyond those signals being hedged to 80 % in an active ladder of 3x short ETF signals comprised of SPXS,…Continue Reading →

Let’s let all this sink in for an hour or days. whatever it takes. Looking at the Model internals, I am thinking that the next signals out of the Model will be speculative short sales of popular indexes on rallys…Continue Reading →

One has to keep in the back of your mind that Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has explicitly linked Quantitative Tightening (QT) to a broader strategy for addressing supply side inflation, framing it as part of a “pragmatic monetarism” approach. It…Continue Reading →

Climate Model has a bit in Solar and Hydrogen and batteries, everything else is gone or hedged.

In a way I feel like the last 39 years have been training for the coming period. In 1987 I was trading in Chicago when the crash occurred. Fortunately, our early technical trading system got us out of the market…Continue Reading →