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What will Powell do?

First, Powell cannot give any indication that he will back off, even though the corner on inflation has been made. To follow through on his posture and rhetoric he is forced to do a small 0.25 rate raise. What does…Continue Reading →

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It’s All about the Fundamentals..

This past couple of weeks have seen a lot of market commentators talking about how the market action is all about the technicals and whether various moving averages and trend lines of the bear market are being violated. That is…Continue Reading →

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The Bernanke Curse

As the markets twiddle around waiting the 7 trading days until the FED provides their next story, one has to look back at how we got here. It all started with the belief that smart PHD’s could run the economy…Continue Reading →

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The FED, Leader or Forcer

Over the weekend The Motley Fool said: “This Recession Indicator Hasn’t Been Wrong in 56 Years: Here’s What It Says Happens Next”. What they are talking about is the Yield Curve and here are their further comments: “While there are…Continue Reading →

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On the Edge

Here we show a 15 minute chart at 10:15 AM CST that allows one to drill down to the moment. What we see is the FED Fund rate is declining vs the average market rate, and yet the market rate…Continue Reading →

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FED Meltdown

Today saw the breakdown of average market rates (30Y+10Y+5Y+2Y) with a close of 3.60. Now the focus will turn to the all-important 2 year which at 3.70 will trigger all kinds of mind changes. The Talk of 5 and 6…Continue Reading →

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FED Blow-UP

FED program about to blow-up. Market rates are lower today, breaking through support levels, FED funds rates are up, yet the important 30yr vs 10yr is rising, that says market rates have topped. Here is the ave mkt rate chart,…Continue Reading →

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The 2023 Theme

For me it is simply, “Economic Results will be better than Expected”. At the moment we are kind of at a tight spot for the following reasons: The FED is hell bent on destabilizing the economy by putting upward pressure…Continue Reading →

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Who Wins Here ?

The battle between the FED and the markets on rates is front and center. My vote goes to the market. Here is what Bloomberg is saying this morning. An as-expected cooling in US inflation further fanned the flames of a fight between the market…Continue Reading →

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The Fed keeps fighting the market…

This post is after the close on Thursday, 1-12-23. The first chart here shows the falling market rates. Note the market rate is pressing the lower dotted line across the chart. The next chart shows how the FED has kept…Continue Reading →

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Maybe just review the past four posts…

There is nothing new at the moment, just see what CPI and forecast GDP numbers are tomorrow.

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Looking for Answers…

Looking for Answers… That is the dilemma of the market after last Friday. Why is the economy doing better than many economists have expected. I don’t know for sure but I will throw out a few things to ponder. Today’s…Continue Reading →

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Applying the 2023 Forecast #2

Here to me are the highlights of our Forecast. Interest rates are the focus point for the markets, especially stocks. Key fact, the interest rate increases and QT which started in 2022 have made the economy more efficient. Money is…Continue Reading →

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Applying the 2023 Outlook #1

January 4, 2023 For me a few headline views: Inflation is key issue. Inflation numbers topped out in June 2021 Factors pushing those numbers were primarily Covid and Ukraine/Russia related, ie. supply chain and excess cash pushed out by the…Continue Reading →

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2023 Forecast

January 3, 2023 First, as the politicians always say, to be perfectly clear, da, da, da. For me, to be perfectly clear, no one knows what is going to happen in the coming year, but what one can do is…Continue Reading →

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