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Keeping it Real Simple

The Stock Market Top One could make the case that the start of the Stock Market Top was the January 2018 fracture time. The average for that month was 2713 on the S&P. Swing Extremes Since The S&P extreme prices…Continue Reading →

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Patiently Waiting for it to Happen

The Crash, That IS The average on the S&P since the Fracture Date in January 2018 is approximately 2820, ( 5.7  percent) below yesterday’s close.  That is essentially my average short position as I continue to follow the only discipline…Continue Reading →

Posted in Analytic Fundamentals, Big Picture, Uncategorized | Leave a comment

The Hope Based Fakeout

Interest rate Blip The interest rate blip is now firmly is place, and as we have outlined since we dumped our long held bond position on June 20 2019, we have expected a slow upward pressure on rates to the…Continue Reading →

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Macro Data Now Front and Center

Bigger Fish to Fry This week the markets will be looking at a lot more than earnings, which year over year have been dismal, but through stock buybacks and lowered expectations are being touted as great. Macro Political Scene is…Continue Reading →

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Is the Market Getting Ahead of Itself

Based on the commentators, it would appear that a FED cut of 0.25 is in the bag this week.  That may be the case, although the data may not support it now.  But in any case if the cut is…Continue Reading →

Posted in Analytic Fundamentals, Fed Comments | Leave a comment

So Many Choices, Only Two Really Count

The Setup As we watch what Alan Greenspan liked to call the “Conundrum” evolve, we are witnessing an unusual amount of quietness (directionless low order chaos) in the markets. It is becoming more obvious that the market really did throw…Continue Reading →

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Fear is Receding while Risk is Increasing

The FED Reserve Additions (the infamous not QE) This belief that the FED addition of reserves to allow better liquidity is going to help the stock market is wrong headed.  This FED action is just an attempt to forestall a…Continue Reading →

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Most Important Setup Day in 49 Years, for me

We have been waiting since January 2018 for a setup to develop that would add up all the data points.  We got it today. The FED has learned its lesson, they see increasing government deficits as the key risk going…Continue Reading →

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Bubble Jumpers. Markets Refuse to give up Stupdity

What is a Bubble Jumper? If the Stock Bubble is not working, jump to the Bond Bubble. As our post yesterday pointed out, there is only one market that is not inflicted with hysteria at the moment, the 3 month…Continue Reading →

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Interest Rate Markets may be getting ahead of Themselves

  All the clamor and market action on interest rates lately seem to be small picture actions. See below a recent study that we have done using a Normalized Interest Rate base.  

Posted in Analytic Fundamentals, Big Picture | Leave a comment

Playing with the 200 Day Average

The Big Spill After the big spill of the past few days we will probably see a little consolidation above the 200 day average and some trading in the 2850 to 2940 area of the S&P.  Two days of closes…Continue Reading →

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Dow Jones Crash, There will be bounces

Headed much lower While there will be bounces before, we are looking at 2600 area on S&P for first of many support areas.

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Dow Jones Crash, Major Cycle Sell Signal Confirmed on close today

Market is setup for a major down move from here.

Posted in Analytic Fundamentals, Technical Talk | Leave a comment

The Market is Coiled for a Breakout, and the VIX is Silent

Breakout is setup in Stocks Direction is going to be either sharply higher or sharply lower, maybe today…. We think lower, but in this day and age…???

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Dow Jones Crash, Who Knows the Why and When

The Market is going to Crash Why and When are the two unknowns. So many reasons are available.

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