It seems we had the perfect storm to clean up some market exuberance. We tested the May 20th thrust up day and it held. I think we see the second bubble-up wave coming next from this general area. Probably a…Continue Reading →

Today has the makings of an important day in market history. I frequently mention two indexes that we calculate and monitor. One is the Monetary Multiplier Index, it is the sum total of the impact of the Dollar, Gold, Oil,…Continue Reading →

My conversation with Copilot AI concerning the New Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh   I find AI can be useful in structuring big questions that one might have, in this case, the selection of a new FED Chair. I tend to prefer…Continue Reading →

Putting leverage back on today. First time since deleveraging on May11. One thing the model monitors, the TLT/SPX ratio is now down to an extremely oversold level of 14.4. It may not be the bottom, but long-term it works.

Markets are adjusting to inflation forces.

It would appear that what the model is picking up on is a bit of indigestion tied to rising interest rates, no doubt due to Iran War repercussions.

The Climate Tech Model which normally uses 2.8X leverage, has pulled out leverage today. Indications are showing that while long term markets direction points higher, at the moment the tech market portion is stretched.

War and AI debt continues to fuel the markets. What we call “Animal Spirts” are up sharply from March 9 recent lows but are still below the levels of early in 2025 when Trump euphoria was reigning. Interest rates are…Continue Reading →

Wow, after seeing this video i realize the Democrats have someone that sees the big picture. This should open some eyes in Washington.

A little stall out here. Technically things are improving as RSI’s compress. Time for patience. We have the installation of Warsh plus the wind down of the war over the next 3 to 4 weeks. The Iranian’s will not get…Continue Reading →

This is a good time to think back about things. Here are two important things I recall from my mentors, 56 years ago when I started trading on the CME floor.

Keep repeating to yourself, this is a manipulated market. The three blobs of rot at the core of the coming stock market rally. * Misplaced AI Euphoria. * Government Debt * Supply side Greed Plan: Ride along with the manipulators…Continue Reading →

I think for most people, we can provide a positive impact to your thinking on the markets by focusing on the long-term. I think short-term comments by definition in a volatile market are best found on other sites that are…Continue Reading →

My post of a few days ago, on April 21st, is probably all one needs to think about for the rest of this year, it has the basics, a hot government debt increase based market, and the mid-term battle being…Continue Reading →

And it is not that Trump is going to surprise anyone. we all know who he is and what he stands for. The surprise is going to be on Trump, compliments of Kevin Warsh. Warsh actually understands what causes inflation,…Continue Reading →