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Victory is at Hand

It has been a long 18 years since I left the Republican Party and repudiated what I had been part of for the prior 20 some years. I started my trading company in 1979 and initially embraced the Reagan trickle…Continue Reading →

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When is the Blowout, Why not Soon ?

We are living in a time where the breeding grounds for parabolic moves are multiplying. Interest rates and dollar value could be next. At the moment there seems to be underlying sentiment that the dollar up move over the past…Continue Reading →

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Very Narrow Leadership

Obviously my path over the past 50 some years, being focused on the concept of hedging assets when overvalued, has not served me well in the current fluff environment. Today it may be instructive to look at what is leading…Continue Reading →

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One Thing for Sure

We are sitting at a time in the economic universe when conventional measures sit at extremes. To me this means not so much what changes things but that things will change dramatically from here. Over the past year I have…Continue Reading →

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Interest Rates, Biggest Risk at this Time

Market players seem to believe stocks have another leg up. But the great equalizer is waiting in the wings, the ten year rate. The hoped for reopening boom is the driver behind all this. Will it really happen? Simple swing…Continue Reading →

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What if this is just an Illusion?

Markets are churning after a series of plays… We had the Trump save the tax cut and tariff fiasco January 2018 to February 2020… We had the COVID offset play March 2020 to October 2020… We have had the Biden…Continue Reading →

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Two Important Clues Today

Two relationships are making seismic changes: The relationship between stock indexes and the dollar is number one. 2. And the relationship between stock indexes and high yield bonds are an even bigger story. I am watching the high yield bond…Continue Reading →

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Random musings as things evolve..

My path on economic matter tries to adhere to a balance between investing, saving, and speculating. Within the current long cycle economic policy has pushed, whether intentionally or not, away from interest rates that provide incentives for saving and instead…Continue Reading →

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It’s In the Air

I have mentioned the book “the Fourth Turning “ to all of you a number of times. One core item of the crisis period that is believed to be close at hand…. “It’s in the Air, how the crisis aspect…Continue Reading →

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Interest Rates are now Center Stage

With Powell’s FED comments today we see an approach where he is willing to do nothing until he sees the whites of the eyes. Those whites will not be of a strong economy, but more likely the whites of the…Continue Reading →

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Waiting for an Excuse

Markets are basically quiet, sitting and hoping for something from the FED this week to spur more excesses. Let’s see if they get it. I plan to do more selling on Wednesday.

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What’s Different Now

It is in my tweet for pasted today.

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Out of Touch

Today it is easy to feel out of touch. Nominal prices are going through the roof, the stock market is basing it’s view on higher means even higher, real value has no place. All I can do in this kind…Continue Reading →

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The Hook is set for the Downward Adjustment

As I stated yesterday, we are in a long-term adjustment move. The little kernel of truth inside the upside bounce today is the junk bond market. Interest rates there are rising at the same time the 30 year bond rates…Continue Reading →

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Market Players have Lost Control

We are starting a time when the Pandemic withers and a certain level of normalcy is attained. As we have said many times, this will be the tough time for the market. For the past twelve months a hyped market…Continue Reading →

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