Update on our Models C-0 to C-4 market crash signals that we outlined in our blog on September10th. As of today’s close we have a C-4 signal on our broad eight factor unweighted index, (SPX+NDX+RUT+DJI+DJT+XLF+XLY), that is significant. What will…Continue Reading →

Occasionally I chat with CoPilot AI on the state of things in the market, today I asked: What inner stock market crosscurrents led to the 1987 stock market crash Copilot said: The 1987 crash was not caused by a single…Continue Reading →

To me we are witnessing a confrontation between the 1) the Broad Economy, 2) the Commodity/Inflation Economy, and the 3) AI Build Economy. After the bond vigilantes took over on August 3rd, our Climate Tech Model has had a difficult…Continue Reading →

I am talking about what occurred in the time period between August 8 and September 18. On the face of it, that is what the market seems to be saying. There seems to be the conclusion that higher rates are…Continue Reading →

The Climate Model cut its long climate stock signals in half back on September 1 and now will be going beyond those signals being hedged to 80 % in an active ladder of 3x short ETF signals comprised of SPXS,…Continue Reading →

Let’s let all this sink in for an hour or days. whatever it takes. Looking at the Model internals, I am thinking that the next signals out of the Model will be speculative short sales of popular indexes on rallys…Continue Reading →

One has to keep in the back of your mind that Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has explicitly linked Quantitative Tightening (QT) to a broader strategy for addressing supply side inflation, framing it as part of a “pragmatic monetarism” approach. It…Continue Reading →

Climate Model has a bit in Solar and Hydrogen and batteries, everything else is gone or hedged.

In a way I feel like the last 39 years have been training for the coming period. In 1987 I was trading in Chicago when the crash occurred. Fortunately, our early technical trading system got us out of the market…Continue Reading →

A few days ago our Climate Change Model ,which gets its name because a minimum one third of its portfolio is in climate related stocks, flashed a Hedge signal. For our internal use this signal has four levels, C-0 to…Continue Reading →

No Change in Model Hedge Positioning as we approach the close on September 8th, still working basis a C-1 signal. The model did however, increase the long side of the ledger by adding to solar positions.

This piece is by: Ben Kizemchuk Senior Investment Advisor and Portfolio Manager at Wellington-Altus. Tweets are not investment advice. What I think he is saying is what I happen to believe and have spoken to at points, and that is…Continue Reading →

Expanding on all this it is interesting to see where investors are placing their money since the August 3rd Inflection Point. The obvious and logical areas are commodities, especially agricultural, commodity ETF’s like BCI. The CRB index does a good…Continue Reading →

We are in the early period of a hedge signal, while the signal remains intact, it is being tested, this will either set the hook for a significant hedge return or for a failed hedge, for the moment the signal…Continue Reading →

Yesterday we entered what I term in our Climate Tech Model as “Crash Protection Mode” which has five different levels, C-0 through C-4. We are now in C-0, warnings are being triggered but no definitive crash triggers yet a C-1…Continue Reading →