June T-Bond futures are now the lead month. For a long time we have been looking for the long term charts to hit 166 on Bonds. Because of a supposed aberration in availability of Bonds the June contract has been…Continue Reading →
In my opinion Yellen in her data dependent world is looking for an out. She now knows we are all in a different world. In that case the FED needs to get short term interest rates up to maybe the…Continue Reading →
This morning we reduced our weightings for long T-Bond positions and increased our weightings for long Dollar positions. T-Bonds are 30 years into their Bull Market while the Dollar is only 8 months into its Bull Market. Update at 12:00…Continue Reading →
I only have a Masters in Economics, and it is a old one, so maybe the new Phd’s have learned something radically new. But if cheap money was the answer, why had the world not used this magical tool…Continue Reading →
Subscribers have been sent detail. See January 15th 2015 post for background. Performance update for February 12 2015: EGH 9.25 -2.84 % EAH 9.77 -1.71 % S&P 208.48 + 0.96 % …Continue Reading →
The markets continue to bounce around. 1) Stocks have support from the technology companies, and we may see a little upside blowoff in the indices before the macros take hold again. 2) T-bonds saw the expected back off down to…Continue Reading →
You know where we are on this question. We believe that the deflation wave is the primary metric, and that basic materials like oil, copper, maybe even lumber are feeling the pressure first. You also know that for some time…Continue Reading →
Here is our view on the Macro Waves, the four descriptive labels available are: ( 1) Strongly UP, 2) Weakly UP, 3) Strongly Down, 4) Weakly Down ) Stocks – Weakly UP T-Bonds – Strongly…Continue Reading →
The stock market has been consolidating since late November and is set up to make a move, which most anticipate is for another leg higher. Today’s employment report is supportive of that kind of move. So lets look at the…Continue Reading →
More of the same. Jobs report tomorrow, the market is not worried, it thinks it will be a good report, over 250,000 new jobs, but if it isn’t, Janet will step to the plate and reassure it. Today’s letter from…Continue Reading →