We are sitting at a time in the economic universe when conventional measures sit at extremes. To me this means not so much what changes things but that things will change dramatically from here. Over the past year I have…Continue Reading →
Market players seem to believe stocks have another leg up. But the great equalizer is waiting in the wings, the ten year rate. The hoped for reopening boom is the driver behind all this. Will it really happen? Simple swing…Continue Reading →
Markets are churning after a series of plays… We had the Trump save the tax cut and tariff fiasco January 2018 to February 2020… We had the COVID offset play March 2020 to October 2020… We have had the Biden…Continue Reading →
Two relationships are making seismic changes: The relationship between stock indexes and the dollar is number one. 2. And the relationship between stock indexes and high yield bonds are an even bigger story. I am watching the high yield bond…Continue Reading →
My path on economic matter tries to adhere to a balance between investing, saving, and speculating. Within the current long cycle economic policy has pushed, whether intentionally or not, away from interest rates that provide incentives for saving and instead…Continue Reading →
I have mentioned the book “the Fourth Turning “ to all of you a number of times. One core item of the crisis period that is believed to be close at hand…. “It’s in the Air, how the crisis aspect…Continue Reading →
With Powell’s FED comments today we see an approach where he is willing to do nothing until he sees the whites of the eyes. Those whites will not be of a strong economy, but more likely the whites of the…Continue Reading →
Markets are basically quiet, sitting and hoping for something from the FED this week to spur more excesses. Let’s see if they get it. I plan to do more selling on Wednesday.
It is in my tweet for pasted today.
Today it is easy to feel out of touch. Nominal prices are going through the roof, the stock market is basing it’s view on higher means even higher, real value has no place. All I can do in this kind…Continue Reading →