Rolling Bubbles
As we outlined early this year, market players were intent on pushing the “Buildup to Normal” story in the new year. I have to admit that I totally misread how much of a pile on we would see. First we…Continue Reading →
Archive for February 2021
Mania Unwound
Today we are seeing the first indication that the total funding of the economy which has been massively built around leverage, is coming unwound. See the chart below that we have shown many times. It is the total of all…Continue Reading →
What Now ?
I would expect that the last wave of this reflation hope scenario, ie, higher interest rates, have probably gone up about as much as can be expected without confirmation that economic activity has improved. With that said, the interest rate…Continue Reading →
Last Stages of the Reflation Buildup
That is what we are seeing. Companies are completing the buildup, building inventories of raw material. Consequently interest rates reacted. Now comes the proof in the pudding. Have the majority of consumers already spent, thinking prices are going to go…Continue Reading →
Asset Bubble that morphed into a Interest Rate Bubble
Here is one of my favorite big picture charts that we have shared many times. The Market puzzle chart compares the S&P 500, Gold, Commodities, and the 2 year vs 30 year interest rate yield curve. (these are indexes based…Continue Reading →
Think Support, Not Stimulus
Enough said for today. Review our posts for the past week for more depth.
All the Smart People
Shifting gears from my last blog post on the Macro Cycle outlook. I have taken a couple of days to settle in and not blog as the markets stall. The explainers are now out in force. Just watch two daily…Continue Reading →
Next Bull Market Top, Year 2050 to 2070
The euphoria and mania surrounding todays markets are in my view, characteristics of a recession rollover. Trading or investing with a defensive posture may have seemed brutal since last August but with all the hope injected into the pandemic and…Continue Reading →
FED is on the Brink…with update at 1:30 PM CST
The FED fund rate is on the Brink of being pushed higher by the FED as the 3 month rate is approaching zero this week. This at a time when longer term rates, the 10 year, 20 year, and 30…Continue Reading →
Winding up on Hope
To me it would appear that Hope has approached a peak level, and now reality will start to become a bigger input into the equation. Stocks and commodities are culminating the move that started last August, a move based on…Continue Reading →