As we said back on May 6th, the 2000 and 2007 tops were marked with a broad May-October period of price discovery. With the current action of the market bouncing around between poor economic numbers/more Fed and good economic numbers/less…Continue Reading →
As Europe and then Japan jumped on the Bernanke train over the past two years we have seen a world of extreme risk become our lot. The one thing everyone knows is that interest rates will rise at some point. …Continue Reading →
Grant Williams Do the Math Presentation to the 66th Annual CFA Conference in Singapore http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Osq1yxSFVG0
No it isn’t, the question is…. did QE2 and QE3 get employment back to goals, and we know the answer.
At the start of today’s testimony both lawmakers and Ben came to the conclusion that QE did not work. The reasons, well, two were mentioned, fiscal drag from Washington austerity and Obamacare. Wake up guys, you have to let the 2008…Continue Reading →
The force of underlying deflation is waiting, waiting for something big to happen. Abenomics in Japan is just a little temporary respite. The Fed cannot stop QE infinity until inflation becomes rampant as their employment triggers are not possible. Sadly, bubbles…Continue Reading →
Ben Bernanke whose overall characterization is probably best said as “Helicopter Ben” has actually in his terms as Fed Chairman played two roles so far: 1) Ben the Savior is number one. He did save the economy with QE 1…Continue Reading →
While we have had success in our comments on the dollar and interest rates over the past year, our biggest contributor to portfolio asset growth has been our deflation posture and the short gold and commodity positions. My biggest mistake…Continue Reading →
The fact that during the stock blow-off this week, the T-Bond markets held well above their March 2013 lows of 140-14 and the 141 level where we covered our short Bond positions held since last summer, seems to portend to…Continue Reading →
Current Macro View May 14, 2013 The first QE made sense, it allowed capital time to adjust to a new reality. QE-2, QE-3, and QE-Infinity, basically attempts to take the economy back to where it was in 2007, made…Continue Reading →