Archive for October 2020

Unwinding the Hype

This week we have seen the first part of the great unwind of three years of hype and P/E Multiples. What the market seems to ignore is that it needs to primarily deal with the dislocations associated with the move…Continue Reading →

Macroeconomic uncertainty

It may be time to take a look at the cyclically adjusted price-earnings (CAPE) ratio, Campbell and Shiller (1998) to help gauge whether the stock market is overvalued. Two of the three inputs interest rates and potential growth rates, can…Continue Reading →

Nothing New Today

The Stimulus game continues. See Friday’s comments. Trump, Mnuchin, and Pelosi do the good cop thing, McConnell and the Republicans do the bad cop thing. As the election appears to be continuing to move to the Democrats side, the desire…Continue Reading →

It is 1987, All Over Again

What is the main cause of stock market crash of 1929 and 1987? Experts conclude the crash occurred because the market was overbought, overvalued, and excessively bullish, rising even as economic conditions were not supporting the advance as well as…Continue Reading →