On Review, Bubble Persists…
After doing a lot of review of data and charts over the weekend I have to say that the magnitude of the bubble that we were in and the leadup to it (39 years and a hyper last 10 years)…Continue Reading →
Archive for January 2022
High Risk Contrarian Trade
This morning I am trying the long side in speculative accounts. This is a ‘see how it feels trade”, S&P at 4296 at 9:10 AM CST. Daily RSI is the main factor driving the trade, it is low at 23.8….Continue Reading →
Late Afternoon Comment..
Tomorrow should be a fascinating day. Probably a bad PCE number in the morning (high inflation number) and only thing that can offset it, is ass backwards, i.e. the 10 year interest rate dropping today. It feels good to have…Continue Reading →
The Fed has it Backwards, Part III of 2022 Outlook
To me the Fed has it backwards. If they believed in markets, they would leave Fed Fund rates alone and go to the source of the inflation problem, Fed Balance sheet and excess liquidity, cut out 2 Trillion, let short…Continue Reading →
FED Meeting
Here is what Bloomberg News said this morning: While today’s Federal Reserve decision is not expected to announce any immediate change, policy makers are likely to signal a rate hike in March. There may also be discussions on the shrinking…Continue Reading →
The Burst Bubble, a Trader’s Heaven
Here is a second post for today, a personal comment that I sent to a reader of our blog who had a question about what to do here. The Bursting Bubble… With the bursting of the stock market bubble over…Continue Reading →
Taking a Deep Breath..with update
First, an Update on our S&P Hedge Program.. After the past two days market action the current open short positions are on Alert Status. Maybe a little history on this Program. This program is based on a range of economic…Continue Reading →
Contrarian Roots
Trying to stay true to my contrarian roots, covered short stock positions at 9:15 this morning. S&P at 42.73, Nasdaq 100 at 13,991. All these in speculative trading accounts that use 3X leveraged ETF’s. Got out of 2/3 late Friday,…Continue Reading →
Problem of a Timid FED, with late trading update
The yield curve is showing what happens when you have a FED that doesn’t address the problem, i.e., the ballooned FED Balance Sheet. The timid response of raising the FED funds rate 4 or 5 times is not going to…Continue Reading →
A nice little Trading Day
Some of the stock indexes hit their 200-day averages yesterday, namely the FANG and DOW indexes and we are getting a bounce. This may last for a day or two, but do not be surprised at the Market Bubble that…Continue Reading →