I was going to expand on interest rates this morning, but seeing as I already have my position on, long the TLT, anticipating that rates have topped for this cycle, and seeing today’s GDP estimate, -1.4%, and CPI coming out…Continue Reading →
The talk currently dominating the economic media space is the job the FED has to do is beat inflation. What is not talked about, but which is a bigger goal; is for the markets is to conquer the conspiracy between…Continue Reading →
MY views are out there in terms of how the overall markets come out of the 4150 to 4662 SPX consolidation phase. We are committed to a belief that the breakout out of this range will be to the upside…Continue Reading →
Before I get into my analysis of the Current Market Setup I would like to review how we got to this point. As long-time readers know, I have been talking about how an abundance of FED action starting with QE2…Continue Reading →
Fed Bully Pulpit yield curve manipulation has been trying to push market down, three pushes down to SPX 4370. since 1/25. The SPX 4370 to 4570 trading range has been fun, but it is getting a little old. So rather…Continue Reading →
This is a morning to watch, positions are in place. We have three markets that are stretched and two markets that are in limbo. The stretched markets are commodities/oil, interest rates, and the dollar, while the two markets in limbo…Continue Reading →
This week we have seen a basing of stocks. Being an earnings report period we will continue to see surprises, like Netflix today, that will show adjustments after coming out of 2 years of pandemic. I don’t know about all…Continue Reading →
As I watch the market today, and think about what has changed, I am drawn back to October 21, 2021, kind of the date when the Jerome Powell probably started to realize he had screwed up on by providing way…Continue Reading →
The yield curve talk over the past two months has dominated media news. A couple of key concepts to keep in mind are: Since October of 2011 when Bernanke created QE2, markets have been an artificial construct. Supply and demand…Continue Reading →
This week has been one where the higher interest rate story is sinking into Main Street. The backstory, i.e. the Fed Balance sheet story is not. So a period of digestion is here. Traders need to be cautious, but keep…Continue Reading →