The yield curve talk over the past two months has dominated media news. A couple of key concepts to keep in mind are: Since October of 2011 when Bernanke created QE2, markets have been an artificial construct. Supply and demand…Continue Reading →
This week has been one where the higher interest rate story is sinking into Main Street. The backstory, i.e. the Fed Balance sheet story is not. So a period of digestion is here. Traders need to be cautious, but keep…Continue Reading →
This is a dangerous time, the start of the serious unwinding of the Bernanke-Powell Artificial Economic Experiment. It may take a year or two to clean out this mess. While many are viewing it as a time to be Bearish,…Continue Reading →
After eleven years of artificial markets, we all know that there is going to be a move towards normal at some point. But how does it happen. We exited all our short positions yesterday on the close as the NDX…Continue Reading →
This week should be the end of our current trading range mentality in SPX and NDX that has dominated since January 25th. That has been around 4360 to 4600 on SPX and 14,100 to 15,200 on NDX. I continue to…Continue Reading →
The FED minutes presented some difficult numbers for the market to digest Wednesday. First, the 95 Billion monthly reduction of the Balance Sheet is in the zone of serious action, So, maybe it is the fact that the number is…Continue Reading →
This analysis builds on our previous “A Contrarian 2022 View” published a week or two ago and includes analysis built around the Mauldin piece published last Saturday. First, here is the background setup for the earlier analysis in “A Contrarian…Continue Reading →
As outlined Friday, a trading range going into next week’s FED meeting is being exploited, the Feb 2 highs and Feb 14 lows are the goal posts. SPX 4595-4364, NDX 14119-15196. SPX swing-point 4480, NDX swing-point 14657.
Occaionally, when topics are covered that I deem to be of high value, I post John Mauldin’s weekly newsletter. Here is the one from this morning. It is primarily about the various yield curve interpretations out there at the moment…Continue Reading →
For two years market players did not have to make a decision. Stocks always went up interest rates were always low. Now, today, no one knows what is next, even the FED, that is why flexibility is number one, watch…Continue Reading →