Jackson Hole..
At the end of this ho-hum day, My thoughts going into Jackson Hole: * 3.5 percent is not a high interest rate, really a LT neutral rate. * Jerome wants it all, there will be no Pivot, let’s call him…Continue Reading →
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Message
Market is sending a message. Today’s early test of the top of the buy area on SPXL, 85.70 is good. It probably says that 81.20 will not be reached. But be patient, still 3 more days till JH. A close…Continue Reading →
The Bearish Backdrop..
Our trading comments for today first: Our model is starting to deploy on the long side the 20% of the portfolio that we use for long/short hedging. Starting small with SPXL 3X longs at 85.45, just 2% of portfolio for…Continue Reading →
Strategy Week
Main points, first, I continue to view June as the bottom in the market, secondly, I view investment in efficient production and use of energy as the biggest driver going forward. Hedge trades at various points in the 3X short…Continue Reading →
Hedges Lifted…
11:25 AM CDT I don’t want to turn this blog into a day trading mode, but for what it is worth the hedge model lifted hedges in SQQQ at 36.60.
Adjustments to late summer quiet market..
The way we are treating this in our model is by reducing long side leverage today. i.e. No changes to core long EV, CHIPs, Biotech, just using 3X short ETF’s SQQQ and SPXS to bring leverage down to 0.45 from…Continue Reading →
Summer Doldrums..
There is no rush to build a bull market. For now, validating a bottom is good enough. Now a little of back and forth.
Increasing Supply…
It looks to me that all the bearish talk and reluctance to cover shorts on the part of the big money bears is premised on a belief that the Fed knows what it is doing, like cutting demand, while the…Continue Reading →
Unravelling the Bernanke Mistake…
All this talk of stagflation gets us nowhere. We need a realization that a 3.5 percent Fed Funds rate is normal, that everything that Bernanke did was abnormal. We need CEO’s who can work in that environment and produce 5…Continue Reading →
Holding…
Just holding positions today and watching. The 2 yr interest rate is gaining on the Fed Funds rate, this means growth is getting more thought than inflation at the moment. Also, the S&P is trading above the 4231 level, so…Continue Reading →