Today’s JOLTS number has all the pundits screaming about how employment cost increases are the problem and the FED will need to keep raising rates to counteract this. Wake up people, since Reagan’s Supply-Side economy was hatched in 1980, the…Continue Reading →
Everyone seems to be trying to wear themselves out in forecasting what the FED is going to do. For me, the Dollar tells the story. Over the past month the dollar hit the important 113 resitance area, and is rolling…Continue Reading →
Over the next 10 days, a lot is going to fall in place. First, we have the FED meeting which should have few surprises, another 0.75 hike in the FED funds rate, to get it in line with market forecasts….Continue Reading →
Here is the chart of the dollar. The red area was the resistance target that I outlined in early 2021.
The topping out of the dollar is the most important thing that has occurred over the past couple of weeks. This is due to a realization of the damage the FED was doing to the global economy. Update here of…Continue Reading →
Here is the weekly chart from yesterday with appropriate 10 week and 20 week moving averages.
At this point in the process there is probably only one chart I am going to be focused. It is simply an index made up of S&P, 2 yr bonds, and the short dollar ETF. Obviously, the majority of the…Continue Reading →
Keep in mind that all of the 2022 market action to date is because the FED is trying to correct a mistake they made, not a problem in the economy. Consumer demand generally remains solid, supply has been the problem.
“Instability” is Jerome Powells middle name. Over the past two years I have repeatedly pointed out that on August 10, 2020, the FED had the information that told them to stop QE. Now on September 27, 2022, they had the…Continue Reading →
The retest of the June lows has been messy, but was probably to be expected as 11 years of artificial markets are seeing their sunset. During the bottoming process, which started on May 11th, market players have not been looking…Continue Reading →