Victory is at Hand
It has been a long 18 years since I left the Republican Party and repudiated what I had been part of for the prior 20 some years. I started my trading company in 1979 and initially embraced the Reagan trickle…Continue Reading →
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When is the Blowout, Why not Soon ?
We are living in a time where the breeding grounds for parabolic moves are multiplying. Interest rates and dollar value could be next. At the moment there seems to be underlying sentiment that the dollar up move over the past…Continue Reading →
Very Narrow Leadership
Obviously my path over the past 50 some years, being focused on the concept of hedging assets when overvalued, has not served me well in the current fluff environment. Today it may be instructive to look at what is leading…Continue Reading →
One Thing for Sure
We are sitting at a time in the economic universe when conventional measures sit at extremes. To me this means not so much what changes things but that things will change dramatically from here. Over the past year I have…Continue Reading →
Interest Rates, Biggest Risk at this Time
Market players seem to believe stocks have another leg up. But the great equalizer is waiting in the wings, the ten year rate. The hoped for reopening boom is the driver behind all this. Will it really happen? Simple swing…Continue Reading →
What if this is just an Illusion?
Markets are churning after a series of plays… We had the Trump save the tax cut and tariff fiasco January 2018 to February 2020… We had the COVID offset play March 2020 to October 2020… We have had the Biden…Continue Reading →
Two Important Clues Today
Two relationships are making seismic changes: The relationship between stock indexes and the dollar is number one. 2. And the relationship between stock indexes and high yield bonds are an even bigger story. I am watching the high yield bond…Continue Reading →
Random musings as things evolve..
My path on economic matter tries to adhere to a balance between investing, saving, and speculating. Within the current long cycle economic policy has pushed, whether intentionally or not, away from interest rates that provide incentives for saving and instead…Continue Reading →
It’s In the Air
I have mentioned the book “the Fourth Turning “ to all of you a number of times. One core item of the crisis period that is believed to be close at hand…. “It’s in the Air, how the crisis aspect…Continue Reading →
Interest Rates are now Center Stage
With Powell’s FED comments today we see an approach where he is willing to do nothing until he sees the whites of the eyes. Those whites will not be of a strong economy, but more likely the whites of the…Continue Reading →