The Signaling is Over
The market is headed down. 2500 points down in the Dow does not necessarily mean 7500 more points down (1/3 in the first leg), but it might. Here is our Macro Fed Influence chart, shot taken at 9:30 AM CDT….Continue Reading →
Uncategorized
Macroeconomic uncertainty
It may be time to take a look at the cyclically adjusted price-earnings (CAPE) ratio, Campbell and Shiller (1998) to help gauge whether the stock market is overvalued. Two of the three inputs interest rates and potential growth rates, can…Continue Reading →
There is a Time to be Quiet
Baring a steal by the Supreme Court, where everything that we know comes unglued, the election is essentially over. So the market needs to do some digesting. My positions are in place, I will now just watch, this is a…Continue Reading →
It is Not about Volatility, Folks
Listening to the CNBC talking heads this morning, I hear the word Volatility being mentioned a lot. This is a reappearing pattern when they are scared but would not ever express the idea that the market is in trouble. Note…Continue Reading →
Nothing New Today
The Stimulus game continues. See Friday’s comments. Trump, Mnuchin, and Pelosi do the good cop thing, McConnell and the Republicans do the bad cop thing. As the election appears to be continuing to move to the Democrats side, the desire…Continue Reading →
A little like March 6th, but Not
Here is our Fed Influence chart updated through10:00 AM today. First, one has to keep in mind that this is an election market and that the people controlling the large piles of speculative cash are Trump supporters by and large….Continue Reading →
Waiting for the Market
Here is what has happened, overall Macro index remains extended but well below August 7 highs. Here is the table of Macro inputs as of 11:00 AM CDT What is the point? The S&P and Nasdaq are out of sync…Continue Reading →
It is 1987, All Over Again
What is the main cause of stock market crash of 1929 and 1987? Experts conclude the crash occurred because the market was overbought, overvalued, and excessively bullish, rising even as economic conditions were not supporting the advance as well as…Continue Reading →
Why the Stimulus is not a done deal
It is very simple, Republican politicians see the writing on the wall, they are going to lose the election, maybe even the Senate, so why not follow the playbook used after Obama’s election. ie, try to make the economy look…Continue Reading →
The Most Important Chart
It’s still COVID. Stock market charts are being stretched but the bigger picture beyond this one measure is getting more dire. Here is the chart I follow on COVID cases. It turned up late yesterday. No surprise, the pushback on…Continue Reading →