Winding up on Hope

To me it would appear that Hope has approached a peak level, and now reality will start to become a bigger input into the equation.

Stocks and commodities are culminating the move that started last August, a move based on anticipation of the coming end to the pandemic. I don’t know about all of you, but other than restaurants and movie theaters, and some sporting events, life seems to have gone forward like little has happened. That is good as a test of resilience but has not been good in terms of curbing the spread of COVID to vulnerable subsets of the population. The importance of this point, is that little is going to change when the so-called normality returns. People with money have been buying stuff like there is nothing happening. And then, what if the no-problem attitude backfires.

The promised look at 2021 outlook numbers and charts started with us a couple of days ago and I expect it to accelerate tomorrow.

And an update on Fed Impact

Following up on money supply analysis of a couple of days ago, while there has been a huge increase year to year, since August the trend is to less influence. Initially investors are dumping bonds and gold. Commodities and stocks are next.

Here is the updated Fed influence chart (through noon today), banging against August 8 ceiling value.