We are now in a construct where apparently leverage is increasing at an economic high, money is holding in stocks, declining in commodities and is being increased in bonds and Gold. The net effect, an overall new high of dollar…Continue Reading →
Yesterday we all saw the FED speakers go out of their way to say that inflation is transitory. The next two days should be the test of the key High day, May 10, on many indices. That is the day…Continue Reading →
This morning there appears to be a play by the big players on Wall Street to disrupt the top formation that triggered earlier in the month on May 10. I think they will concentrate in two areas, the S&P and…Continue Reading →
If you take a look back at our post on April15, you will see our Blow-Off comment, the day, when the downtrend line off the August 7, 2021 high of the S&P divided by the 10 year interest rate was…Continue Reading →
While the technical trends are down, a likely up move in interest rates is looming and it is hard for me to see the dollar falling as money pours into US Bonds as US seeks funding of its massive deficit.
Welcome to the new world, a digital account that investors appear to use as a digital savings account. They will come to the realization that the FDIC is no backstop. As I said recently, one factor that I think will…Continue Reading →
In the background the slow rollover from Speculation to Value is occurring. Over the weekend I was going to put together a wide array of charts that illustrate where we have come from and the economic picture that has evolved….Continue Reading →
As we mentioned yesterday it will probably take a while for the 31 day rollover period to play out, the period before the market comes unglued. It will be a good time to trade if you are of that persuasion,…Continue Reading →
4238, the all time High on the S&P in 2021.. 2. 2558, the value of the S&P using long term average P/E multiples.. 3. 3842, the average price of the S&P short position using our long term pricing model (position…Continue Reading →
Early morning thoughts.. How will the interest rate and equity markets react to this hot CPI number this morning. Who knows, but in the back of everyone’s mind is the belief that the FED will try to paper over the…Continue Reading →