The Big Crash
Before I get into my analysis of the Current Market Setup I would like to review how we got to this point. As long-time readers know, I have been talking about how an abundance of FED action starting with QE2…Continue Reading →
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Fed Game Accelerates
Fed Bully Pulpit yield curve manipulation has been trying to push market down, three pushes down to SPX 4370. since 1/25. The SPX 4370 to 4570 trading range has been fun, but it is getting a little old. So rather…Continue Reading →
3 to 2
This is a morning to watch, positions are in place. We have three markets that are stretched and two markets that are in limbo. The stretched markets are commodities/oil, interest rates, and the dollar, while the two markets in limbo…Continue Reading →
Staying on Point
This week we have seen a basing of stocks. Being an earnings report period we will continue to see surprises, like Netflix today, that will show adjustments after coming out of 2 years of pandemic. I don’t know about all…Continue Reading →
Backstory
As I watch the market today, and think about what has changed, I am drawn back to October 21, 2021, kind of the date when the Jerome Powell probably started to realize he had screwed up on by providing way…Continue Reading →
Smoke & Mirrors
The yield curve talk over the past two months has dominated media news. A couple of key concepts to keep in mind are: Since October of 2011 when Bernanke created QE2, markets have been an artificial construct. Supply and demand…Continue Reading →
Message Sinking In
This week has been one where the higher interest rate story is sinking into Main Street. The backstory, i.e. the Fed Balance sheet story is not. So a period of digestion is here. Traders need to be cautious, but keep…Continue Reading →
Game Plan
This is a dangerous time, the start of the serious unwinding of the Bernanke-Powell Artificial Economic Experiment. It may take a year or two to clean out this mess. While many are viewing it as a time to be Bearish,…Continue Reading →
How does this End
After eleven years of artificial markets, we all know that there is going to be a move towards normal at some point. But how does it happen. We exited all our short positions yesterday on the close as the NDX…Continue Reading →
Trading Range Ending
This week should be the end of our current trading range mentality in SPX and NDX that has dominated since January 25th. That has been around 4360 to 4600 on SPX and 14,100 to 15,200 on NDX. I continue to…Continue Reading →