Perfect Storm…
It seems we had the perfect storm to clean up some market exuberance. We tested the May 20th thrust up day and it held. I think we see the second bubble-up wave coming next from this general area. Probably a…Continue Reading →
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Big…
Today has the makings of an important day in market history. I frequently mention two indexes that we calculate and monitor. One is the Monetary Multiplier Index, it is the sum total of the impact of the Dollar, Gold, Oil,…Continue Reading →
Understanding Warsh…
My conversation with Copilot AI concerning the New Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh I find AI can be useful in structuring big questions that one might have, in this case, the selection of a new FED Chair. I tend to prefer…Continue Reading →
Back in the Pool…
Putting leverage back on today. First time since deleveraging on May11. One thing the model monitors, the TLT/SPX ratio is now down to an extremely oversold level of 14.4. It may not be the bottom, but long-term it works.
Took a Bit of Time…
Markets are adjusting to inflation forces.
Iran War Feedback…
It would appear that what the model is picking up on is a bit of indigestion tied to rising interest rates, no doubt due to Iran War repercussions.
Letting things Stabilize…
The Climate Tech Model which normally uses 2.8X leverage, has pulled out leverage today. Indications are showing that while long term markets direction points higher, at the moment the tech market portion is stretched.
Debt Fueled Rally is getting Legs…
War and AI debt continues to fuel the markets. What we call “Animal Spirts” are up sharply from March 9 recent lows but are still below the levels of early in 2025 when Trump euphoria was reigning. Interest rates are…Continue Reading →
Stall Time…
A little stall out here. Technically things are improving as RSI’s compress. Time for patience. We have the installation of Warsh plus the wind down of the war over the next 3 to 4 weeks. The Iranian’s will not get…Continue Reading →
Saturday Morning…
This is a good time to think back about things. Here are two important things I recall from my mentors, 56 years ago when I started trading on the CME floor.