Staying at Altitude…
I think you can set aside the soft and hard landing talk. We are still in the early stage of this flight may even go to a higher altitude than earlier anticipated. You can also probably ignore the melt up…Continue Reading →
I think you can set aside the soft and hard landing talk. We are still in the early stage of this flight may even go to a higher altitude than earlier anticipated. You can also probably ignore the melt up…Continue Reading →
As the markets and all involved sit around today to see what the Powell and the FED are going to say it may be a good time to ponder a few things. As we have been saying since the beginning…Continue Reading →
Traders like to talk about hated moves. but we are in the midst of maybe one of the least understood, and by definition then most hated bull moves in a long time. To me, a likely explanation is that eleven…Continue Reading →
My take on interest rates after this morning’s labor report. The effects of growth, no recession, are going to keep the average rate chart level, (average of 30Y+10Y+5Y+2y) in a 4.18 to 4.82 % range. See chart here, sweet spot…Continue Reading →
But first lets take a look at the Dollar. I don’t talk about the dollar often as I view it as more of a catalyst than a trading vehicle. Back on July 20, 2023 we pointed out that the dollar…Continue Reading →
Things are happening. It looks to me like the primary market buyers today are those being forced to exit bearish macro positioning. We have yet to start the bullish macro phase. See the RUT/NDX relationship chart here which we have…Continue Reading →
Commentators this week are almost unanimous that the market is overbought. Yet, the market may not really be overbought. Essentially, only the SPX, and NDQ are being bought by players, everything else is being sold. Net macro position is zilch. …Continue Reading →
But first everyone has to get used to normal interest rates, the 3.5 to 5.5 % range. Happy Thanksgiving.
Update here on what we call the Gundlach 9/20 Fed response, getting long bonds, stocks, and commodities. This is kind of a macro thing, no decisions needed. It broke out on Tuesday, a little back-off opportunity today for those who…Continue Reading →
Today’s action has elements that suggest that we will see a strong 2024 with the small caps having the most potential, Russell is up around 5 percent today. I don’t think it is because the Russell has been relentlessly sold…Continue Reading →