Latest estimate: 2.2 percent — June 07, 2023 The Fed’s GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 2.2 percent on June 7, up from 2.0 percent on June 1. After recent…Continue Reading →
On Climate Change and its effects. Everyone is sitting around talking about recession while the world is sitting on one of the biggest flips in history. How does one play this game? Just four years ago, Jeremy Rifkin, who I…Continue Reading →
Yesterday I laid out the Macro picture, past and future. Now we are kind of in a no-man’s land of little news and a Fed Meeting coming up later in the month. The high flying areas may get a little…Continue Reading →
All this talk about declining earnings and higher interest rates, all the negativity as short positions continue to build against stocks, miss the point. It has been around 270 trading days since the stock market bottom gave its early formation…Continue Reading →
You all know I view the early books of Neil Howe and JohN Strauss, “Generations” and “The Fourth Turning” as bedrock for understanding Macro economic issues, there have been many posts on the issues involved. Neil Howe now has a…Continue Reading →
While there will be a lot of pushback, in terms of long-term direction, today’s employment report and yesterday’s GDPnow estimate for the second quarter at 2.2 percent are adding a push to stocks. This push has been almost a year…Continue Reading →
The Economic Visualization Model that I showed on Tuesday is moving in a tight range this week going into tomorrow’s employment report. Tuesday’s high was 47.48, Wednesday’s low was 46.42 and at the moment at 10:20 AM CDT we are…Continue Reading →
Within a very positive environment. As I mentioned yesterday, the Canary’s point to some short term unease. The short term movements of the dollar, 2 year rates, Real Estate ETF, and the 30-05 YC also backup that feeling. On the…Continue Reading →
For the past montb, since April 27, the Debt Ceiling conversation has dominated any conversation about the economy and by extension, the markets. While the final Ceiling votes are not in yet, the deliberations are nearing an end. During this…Continue Reading →
The speculative third of our Climate Tech model was reconfigured today with half in two ETF’s, TNA & SOXL, kind of a barbell approach with two 3X ETF’s that catch both sides of the market (Russell 2000 and Semi’s) for…Continue Reading →