Flirting with the Swing Points
The swing points of the trading ranges we mentioned the last few days are 1625 on the S&P, 144 on bonds, and 1400 on gold. Yesterday we saw the S&P go down to the swing point and bounce, it will…Continue Reading →
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May – October Trading Ranges
Here is an addition to the S&P and T-Bond trading ranges mentioned on Friday. We are looking at a Gold range of 1275 to 1525 for the same period. Part of the dilemma of the Fed is no doubt that both…Continue Reading →
A Long Summer
As we said back on May 6th, the 2000 and 2007 tops were marked with a broad May-October period of price discovery. With the current action of the market bouncing around between poor economic numbers/more Fed and good economic numbers/less…Continue Reading →
The Scary One Man World of Bernanke
As Europe and then Japan jumped on the Bernanke train over the past two years we have seen a world of extreme risk become our lot. The one thing everyone knows is that interest rates will rise at some point. …Continue Reading →
Do the Math
Grant Williams Do the Math Presentation to the 66th Annual CFA Conference in Singapore http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Osq1yxSFVG0
Taper or No Taper, is that really the Question ?
No it isn’t, the question is…. did QE2 and QE3 get employment back to goals, and we know the answer.
Surprise, QE is not Working………Update at 9:36 AM CDT
At the start of today’s testimony both lawmakers and Ben came to the conclusion that QE did not work. The reasons, well, two were mentioned, fiscal drag from Washington austerity and Obamacare. Wake up guys, you have to let the 2008…Continue Reading →
Ben’s Hands are Tied
The force of underlying deflation is waiting, waiting for something big to happen. Abenomics in Japan is just a little temporary respite. The Fed cannot stop QE infinity until inflation becomes rampant as their employment triggers are not possible. Sadly, bubbles…Continue Reading →
The Three Phases of Bernanke
Ben Bernanke whose overall characterization is probably best said as “Helicopter Ben” has actually in his terms as Fed Chairman played two roles so far: 1) Ben the Savior is number one. He did save the economy with QE 1…Continue Reading →
Deflation is Still the Topic
While we have had success in our comments on the dollar and interest rates over the past year, our biggest contributor to portfolio asset growth has been our deflation posture and the short gold and commodity positions. My biggest mistake…Continue Reading →