Central Banks are Learning Draghi’s difficulties at the ECB yesterday illustrated that low-low yields are not a good or easy answer. The Powell Dilemma Next Up is the September Federal Reserve Meeting and our guess is that they are going…Continue Reading →
Overnight we have seen the 2960 -2976 S&P resistance hit. Today and maybe early tomorrow will be your opportunity to get it on.
First Wave Game Markets are playing a first round game of pushing down rates, creating a huge bond bubble as it tries to keep the other bubble, stocks in place. This Bubble Break will be huge It will include both…Continue Reading →
Jackson Hole is the Key event for the week Does Powell say anything different that will really matter, probably not, but the expectation will be the game of the week. While we outlined the big framework of S&P pricing of…Continue Reading →
Foolish Talk Dominates We have had a number of days of big swings this week with what seems as a lot of foolish talk, like after inversion we have 18 months before the wheels come off. Historically that may be…Continue Reading →
With the wide cycle spread top of approximately 340 days in the S&P confirmed, traders now will have the upper hand. In this we will be watching the 340 day average as support (currently 2790), and the 43 day average…Continue Reading →
The Wheels have come off It only took 20 months from the January 26, 2018 Fracture date when the S&P traded at 2876. We were a month early on the actual Inflexion point The date was July 26 rather than…Continue Reading →
We continue our drumbeat on the view that the 10 year yield maybe bottoming in spite of FED actions on short term rates. This cart was updated through the close today, 7/23/19.
You might want to look back at our post of 6/20/19. We like being out of the long bond position that we held for a long time, many months, years. The long term 10 year yield chart is looking more…Continue Reading →
Here we are looking at Independence Day 2019, and yet.. The real July 4th event is Trump policies taking down the economy and threatening the Federal Reserve if they don’t bail him out. This is what losing your independence is…Continue Reading →