The efforts of the FED and Washington to jawbone the markets out of the Christmas eve swoon are increasingly impressive, but the key question is, does it change the Macro environment. We will soon find out if January 26, 2018…Continue Reading →
Here is the monthly chart on 30 year interest rates going back to 2000. I would not be surprised to see at a minimum the 2.5 rate tested over the next 18 months, and likely a blowout down to 1.5…Continue Reading →
The Verdict The verdict is still out on the stock market rally since Christmas Eve 2018. It has been impressive, but what does it say about the next 18 months. Prognosticators out in Force It seems that many want to…Continue Reading →
In my opinion, what happened with Lindsay this morning, see below, is the primary market factor going forward, Corporate CEO trade based optimism has led them into ignoring real demand and has induced the building of unsold inventory. Ironically government…Continue Reading →
Yahoo Finance headline today that tells a lot of the story of this economy. US companies’ tax windfall fuels record share buybacks. This is what we tried to warn against concerning the Trump Tax Changes, the fact that it would…Continue Reading →
Is there no resistance to this phenomenon? It seems a bit like unprecedented times, with the FED caving to White House pressure and an orchestrated output of known negatives being declared positives by the White House.
The flattening of the yield curve has completed its job of forecasting weak growth. Now we expect it to be a background factor until we reach the end of the asset deflation downturn. This asset downturn has barely started. At…Continue Reading →
First as to the Max 8 I am old enough to point out that most of my flying hours as a passenger have been on 727’s. I remember when I had a choice I tried to avoid the 737 as…Continue Reading →
Today’s market action supposedly based on the wonderful things happening with tariffs makes me ponder. And when I ponder I like to look back at what investors were thinking at important turning points in the past. So let’s look at…Continue Reading →
We have been in the midst of almost a month long bounce in the stock indexes as the guru’s keep telling us about how the 4th quarter decline was an aberration, all about the FED, and thing are going to…Continue Reading →