Back to Real Numbers

We have been in the midst of almost a month long bounce in the stock indexes as the guru’s keep telling us about how the 4th quarter decline was an aberration, all about the FED,  and thing are going to be sweet again.  Lots of happy talk, including how the coming China Tariff deal will make things rosy again.

But Back to the Real Numbers

The Atlanta Fed now has an estimate of 4th quarter GDP of 1.4%  and my guess is that First Quarter 2019 will be under 2.0 %, maybe even under 1.0%.  A lot of damage has been done to the economy and order flow is backed up.  There will be a lot of real numbers over the next 30 days that may be less than upbeat, can the Guru’s and Washington keep spinning a great picture coming on the horizon?  That is the question.

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