With the wide cycle spread top of approximately 340 days in the S&P confirmed, traders now will have the upper hand. In this we will be watching the 340 day average as support (currently 2790), and the 43 day average…Continue Reading →
The Wheels have come off It only took 20 months from the January 26, 2018 Fracture date when the S&P traded at 2876. We were a month early on the actual Inflexion point The date was July 26 rather than…Continue Reading →
We continue our drumbeat on the view that the 10 year yield maybe bottoming in spite of FED actions on short term rates. This cart was updated through the close today, 7/23/19.
You might want to look back at our post of 6/20/19. We like being out of the long bond position that we held for a long time, many months, years. The long term 10 year yield chart is looking more…Continue Reading →
Here we are looking at Independence Day 2019, and yet.. The real July 4th event is Trump policies taking down the economy and threatening the Federal Reserve if they don’t bail him out. This is what losing your independence is…Continue Reading →
We have been talking for some time about why a long bond position makes sense. The exuberance today says to us, time to get your money out of the bond market. We continue to like gold, and are moving the…Continue Reading →
What if the real story is: Over the past 9 months the interest rate markets did their job of forecasting an economic downturn by flattening the yield curve. The FED is now trying to play catch up by steepening the…Continue Reading →
The manipulation of the markets has reached unprecedented levels it seems, and probably was to be anticipated. Two charts here kind of show the picture. First an update of our long standing Fracture Chart. Powell’s comments on the possibility of…Continue Reading →
In spite of all the mayhem in Washington, May 1 2019 was the important date to the stock market. The hype since January 2017 is running out of steam. The Fed doesn’t matter Now. China doesn’t matter Now. Trump’s next…Continue Reading →
What ? While the long-term trend is to lower rates, we would not be surprised at a short-term rise in the 10 year rate, quite possibly to a new high for the year (200 day average rate is 2.84% )…Continue Reading →