The Pending Surprise

In my opinion, what happened with Lindsay this morning, see below, is the primary market factor going forward, Corporate CEO trade based optimism has led them into ignoring real demand and has induced the building of unsold inventory.  Ironically government GDP numbers will not reflect this as unsold inventory is treated the same way as sold in product numbers. So while analysts first quarter earnings projections for the S&P 500 are being forecast 2 to 4 percent lower, that may be way to high.

Lindsay’s stock plunges toward 2-year low after trade dispute leads to profit and sales miss

Tomi Kilgore

MarketWatch  April 9, 2019

Shares of Lindsay Corp. plunged 15% toward a 2-year low in premarket trade Tuesday, after the Nebraska-based maker of irrigation equipment missed fiscal second-quarter profit and sales expectations, citing the negative impact the U.S.-China trade dispute is having on farmer sentiment. For the quarter to Feb. 28, Lindsay swung to a net loss of $3.4 million, 32 cents a share, from a profit of $1.7 million, or 16 cents a share, in the year-ago period. Excluding non-recurring items, adjusted EPS was 2 cents a share. The FactSet EPS consensus was 38 cents a share. Sales fell 16% to $109.2 million, missing the FactSet consensus of $115.4 million, as irrigation and infrastructure segment sales both missed expectations. “Impacts of the recent widespread flooding in the Midwest are unknown at this time, and we don’t expect to see meaningful improvement in farmer sentiment while the U.S-China trade uncertainty persists,” said Chief Executive Tim Hassinger. The stock, on track to open at the lowest level seen during regular-session hours since March 2017, has lost 2.2% year to date through Monday, while the S&P 500 has gained 15.5%.