is the biggest reason for market concern now. There is no sense of the situation that is facing America at this point and the fact that things will only get better if everyone works together. If I were President I…Continue Reading →
Obviously I am watching the very beginnings of the sinking of a big boat. What I see is a lot of scrambling, as investors think they can find a solid life boat. Things like moving into value stocks or the…Continue Reading →
If there was a way to listen, you would hear that the Panic buying today is deafening, big volume buy levels are up 70 % from last weeks range. I continue to think long term cycles, although there are times…Continue Reading →
As we outlined early this year, market players were intent on pushing the “Buildup to Normal” story in the new year. I have to admit that I totally misread how much of a pile on we would see. First we…Continue Reading →
Today we are seeing the first indication that the total funding of the economy which has been massively built around leverage, is coming unwound. See the chart below that we have shown many times. It is the total of all…Continue Reading →
I would expect that the last wave of this reflation hope scenario, ie, higher interest rates, have probably gone up about as much as can be expected without confirmation that economic activity has improved. With that said, the interest rate…Continue Reading →
That is what we are seeing. Companies are completing the buildup, building inventories of raw material. Consequently interest rates reacted. Now comes the proof in the pudding. Have the majority of consumers already spent, thinking prices are going to go…Continue Reading →
Here is one of my favorite big picture charts that we have shared many times. The Market puzzle chart compares the S&P 500, Gold, Commodities, and the 2 year vs 30 year interest rate yield curve. (these are indexes based…Continue Reading →
Enough said for today. Review our posts for the past week for more depth.
Shifting gears from my last blog post on the Macro Cycle outlook. I have taken a couple of days to settle in and not blog as the markets stall. The explainers are now out in force. Just watch two daily…Continue Reading →