The Big Surprise today, Inflation
The wage increase percentage, 0.6 % monthly, or 7.2 % annual is the big number in the report. Plus the economy is stalling.
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A Perverse Investment Philosophy
Following on the market actions of this week, the twitter guru’s, basically followers of Jerome, are saying COVID has been bad and is still bad, so this will give a poor employment number and Jerome will just keep piling in…Continue Reading →
The Analysis Theme
Continuing on with what I said a few days ago. For the last 16 months analysis has appeared to have no value, the Fed was willing to continue the “NO Consequences Economy”. What I mean here is that negative actions…Continue Reading →
Risks are Tripling
Since the start of COVID we have seen a one factor market, Jerome Powell and the FED. Now we are seeing two more factors added to the market, a declining consumer factor, and the inflation factor. All this as fundamental…Continue Reading →
No Surprises Today
Chairman Powell is consistent, he is willing to keep expanding the bubble into the explosion. Embedded inflation is lurking and consumers are getting scared. Market interest rates will move to the front in this scene as the meaningless Fed Funds…Continue Reading →
It is Time to get Serious
I am back from vacation. It was a good period of reading and relaxing and long walks. Fed Chairman Powell is speaking tomorrow at the virtual Jackson Hole meeting. I wonder if they will have virtual steaks and mountains. In…Continue Reading →
A History Lesson
I feel fortunate in many ways for having had the opportunity to be a part of and live through over 50 years of significant dollar related economic history. This due to the fact that I started trading as a member…Continue Reading →
What is at Risk?
As longtime readers can attest, John Mauldin has been one of my favorite market people to read. Here is his letter, out today, which does a good job at explaining the playing field. If one has been trying as I…Continue Reading →
The Bulls are getting lost in the Narratives
The current runup in the market out of the March 2020 lows has gone through a series of explanatory narratives when really there have only been two primary factors, Powell’s Funny Money Fed and Biden’s hail Mary Covid/Infrastructure cash cascade….Continue Reading →
the Picture is becoming Clearer..
Increasing embedded inflation is the story. Our long Dollar, short Stocks, short Bonds, core trade position, and the bigger, long Dollar, short Stocks, short Bonds, short Gold, and short Commodities position is developing in this position building stage.