Growth Economy back in Focus
New growth economy back in focus. 30-05 YC back to working, model covered all hedges on opening. So much for one day of thinking bearish.
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Macro Picture is Decidedly Bullish…
If you go back and take a look at the chart in our February 7 post, you will see that the macro picture is working off the 2009 low. To me this means markets have the potential to go higher…Continue Reading →
New Economy now in Focus…
President Biden’s State of the Union was the public affirmation of what has been building for the past year. He has the energy and plan to get things done. I am hopeful that the energy of the message will filter…Continue Reading →
Looking for Signals…
Recently I have been reading a book called “Signals”, which after reading some of it I see a bit of the thinking that drives Trump. Contrary to what many Democrats think and say, Trump is smarter than 99 percent of…Continue Reading →
The Tough Switch….
What I am talking about here is the switch from hyped artificial markets, the kind of markets that we saw between August 2020 and January 2022, and the new demand markets which started evolving in May of 2022. I see…Continue Reading →
Economic Signals…
The big questions this weekend… Is it what I see, What I imagine, Or what I want? First, Covid produced a kind of forced mixed signal, lots of negatives yet a lot of government monetary aid. Now people seem to…Continue Reading →
So, what did we learn this week?
I think; 1. Rates are not going down, but they also are not going up much, probably a range of 3.65 to 3.95 on the broad 2Y to 30 Y range average. 2. Economy is in a growth mode, a…Continue Reading →
Signs of the New Economy…
A new more productive economy is evolving. The economies Productivity numbers issued today were a + 3.0%. This is what to expect going forward, workers are starting to make up for 40 years of being behind the eight ball on…Continue Reading →
The Fed Overstepped…
And lost its credibility. A few factors stand out. In a sense this was bound to happen after the 12 years of artificial markets, starting with Bernanke’s QE2 in 2011. Neither the markets nor the Fed knew what was really…Continue Reading →
It is not that Hard…
It is not that hard. All the Fed needs is a Tradingview chart. Chart here of CRB index and Fed Funds rate. CRB rates broke out to the upside on Feb 1, 2021, 2 years ago today, and topped out…Continue Reading →