“The Fourth Turning is Here”

You all know I view the early books of Neil Howe and JohN Strauss, “Generations” and “The Fourth Turning” as bedrock for understanding Macro economic issues, there have been many posts on the issues involved.

Neil Howe now has a followup book out, “The Fourth Turning is Here”. The recent John Mauldin SIC conference had Neil on the program and a lot of discussion is based around it, I subscribed to the transcript.

As mentioned, there was a lot of talk about Neil Howe’s book, “The Fourth Turning is Here” and the SIC discussion..my thoughts,

1. First, the belief that defense spending will be the fixed growth sector in the economy may not be true.

2. Second, the belief that oil demand will continue to grow may be ignoring the tipping point effect of ESG adaptation, may decline well before it dwindles to less than 50 % of energy use.

3. AI has the capability to completely change input to the handling of these two questions.