The Perfect Ending
The little trading box built between August 25th and September 8th on the S&P, prices of 1990 to 2011, has set up a bit of commotion, with the 1990 low being taken out by 11 points down to 1979 since….Continue Reading →
Uncategorized
Stock Market Returns, Catching it All
This blog post will be a little long and eventually will probably be moved to the front page of our website. It contains our essential view of what has happened over the past 14 years and the probabilities moving forward…Continue Reading →
Cramer Hot Tech Index
One of the newest inhouse indexes that I watch is what I call, for the lack of anything better, the CNBC Cramer Hot Tech Index. It is made up of 5 stocks TWTR, NFLX, GPRO, TSLA, and FB. I watch this…Continue Reading →
A Certain View in the Face of High Uncertainty
To me it is amzing to see stock market investors be totally certain of higher markets, the percentage of bears is currently at extremely low levels according to reports, and yet I don’t think I have seen more uncertainty in years….Continue Reading →
Is a Currency War Looming
The US Dollar versus Japan and Europe is rising to a point where things could start to have real market consequences. See seekingalpha link from 18 months ago on currency effects: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1224021-the-rising-u-s-dollar-what-it-means-to-the-economy-and-to-investors In the meantime, I am back from vacation and we have…Continue Reading →
Warning Signs Building, but…
No meltdown yet. I have extended my vacation through the end of the month as I still see the turn down more in the late September,early October period, in any case my macro positions are prepared for whenever it occurs….Continue Reading →
Leading Indicators Weak
Just looking through the stocks that are looking weak at the moment, some big names pop up, McDonalds, Caterpillar, Amazon, GE. This coming week is a big one for numbers, GDP and Employment. Look for inventories to rise as Producers…Continue Reading →
Castles and Huts
To me it feels like we are going back to a time of the Nobles and the Serfs. I am taking off for a much need vacation and just have to get a few things off my chest. I left…Continue Reading →
Market Getting a Little Touchy
The market is getting more and more cross currents. I continue to believe that deflation is the bigger issue, not inflation. As I have said many times, until the asset base is de-leveraged, nothing has been fixed since the 2007…Continue Reading →
Another Yellen Boost
It is mid-July, we still have a couple of weeks before the second quarter GDP results are posted (probably confirming that the economy is still below end of 2013 levels ). Again, this is just another tag on the Fed…Continue Reading →