Market Map
The Setup is in place. In spite of everything that has happened since February, I think the next four months will be the most memorable for all of us in terms of the interaction of COVID, the Economy, and the…Continue Reading →
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Setup is Here
Two legs of the four legged stool have pushed out of the 6/5/20 equation with Gold and TLT (20Yr Bond ETF) up strongly. Now the short side of the equation is setup. Early in the week we will sell NDX…Continue Reading →
Second Most Important day of the Year – with update
For stock market traders, that is… For stock market traders who ascribe to the Macro View, today has the potential of being the second most important day of the year. Most important was the Macro top call on 2/21 (S&P…Continue Reading →
Mnuchin’s Folly – It is really happening
We are watching the spread between the 20 Year Bond ETF and the High Risk-High Yield Bond ETF. The long term trend of moving to the low risk bond was interrupted on April 9 when Mnuchin and the Treasury hatched…Continue Reading →
It’s Happening….
What’s happening? The collapsing yield curve and the gold rally are foreshadowing a downturn in stock prices. Two legs of the Macro equation are breaking out, the long gold and long 20 year bond. With all the optimism build into…Continue Reading →
The End of Deflation ?
Is this how deflation ends? Ever since QE 2 funny money started 9 years ago, economic thinkers have wondered how all this foolishness would end. I find it interesting that since the June 5th Macro Pivot Point all four legs…Continue Reading →
Trump Should Change Goal Posts
Trump probably should change his goal posts to reflect his two legacy’s, Panic and Deflation. Since the all important Macro Cycle pivot day, June 5, 2020, we today see gold up 7.8 %, 20 Yr Bonds up 7.2 %, but…Continue Reading →
The Four Year Election Campaign
In short we are watching the blow-up of a four year election campaign, one based on the premise that the stock market, not the economy or people is important. Everything that has been done, tax cuts for the wealthy, FED…Continue Reading →
A Pause
The COVID resurgence has put the Old Normal thrust on hold. Let’s let this unfold.
50 Years Ago Today
An important point in my life. The day in July 15, 1970 that I started trading as a Member on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. It was a big move for an Ag Economics graduate. From managing a…Continue Reading →