Over the past week I have gotten around to reading one of the potentially more important books that I bought around Christmas, yes I tend to buy a number of presents for myself when I go Christmas shopping for others. First I…Continue Reading →
Well first it doesn’t fit on the page and I am hurring to a meeting. It is the chart of consumer confidence that was updated yesterday. Consumer sentiment does tend to correlate with the macro economic cycle, and this topped in 2000, see chart. …Continue Reading →
As in years past, we like to let the year provide a little peak before making the yearly forecast and projections. Note that this blog was first published on January 22, 2008. Our Annual Forecast will be presented in the…Continue Reading →
The 1419 S&P trap level entrance is in play again today. We will use this level to add a little to our S&P short positions, looking for sales just inside the door, around 1424.
The Thanksgiving rally was good for everyone and seemed to push into the background the fact that the deficit will take some kind of hit in the next month. No doubt it will be a combination of revenue increases and…Continue Reading →
The long dollar / short T-Bond trade still looks like the long term trade we outlined some time ago. Short gold still looks good as the long dollar situation will maintain pressure on gold. The short S&P trade is the…Continue Reading →
The early markets have everyone’s attention this morning, lots of excitement on CNBC. For us it will probably be a day to watch, maybe reread what we said in the Inflation/Deflation 9/30/12 post on the Main Site. The risk for…Continue Reading →
The VIX measurement of volatility keeps making new lows, a pattern that has continued since March 2009 (new lows indicate less and less fear on the part of market participants). The reason is obvious, Bernanke has clearly convinced the markets…Continue Reading →
Back on September 13th we said: “The problem is however, that long-term interest rate markets are now edging into a command position to take over leadership with higher interest rates, regardless of what Ben does at this point. If you are…Continue Reading →
This is a little like catching raccoons in a Have-a-Heart Trap of which I am an expert in the process of protecting our organic garden. At first the raccoons are very scared and aggressive, then they lay down and hide…Continue Reading →