For the past 11 months we have seen the US markets playing the reflation scenario. One of the key parts has been an attempt by oil producers to try and get prices back to 2014 levels of more than $…Continue Reading →
The Atlanta FED second quarter GDP number estimates are looking good, except they are basically reflecting an increase in capacity buildout and an inventory build. I would assume that producers think there will be buyers. This will likely be where…Continue Reading →
Tech Frenzy Recently we have seen a frenzy of buying in Tech Stocks, the so called FANG type stocks (Facebook, Apple, Netflicks, Google, Amazon). If one steps back a bit, you might wonder, are these good investments or are they…Continue Reading →
For the past six years the FED has been the Elephant in the Room. Now we have not one but three Elephants that are propping up the markets, the promises: of de-regulation, corporate tax cuts, and infrastructure stimulus. They are…Continue Reading →
We saw it again yesterday, a big wave of buying based on a big mouth spewing a lot of combustible fuel, if we could light it off, at least we could see a little fire for the economy. To me…Continue Reading →
Nothing Really Happened This week’s Federal Reserve meeting should be a wake up call to investors, economists, traders, and in reality, to everyone in the world. What Janet Yellen said, after you tear away the happy talk, was “we threw…Continue Reading →
Yellen is in a corner. The economy is chugging along but is no great shakes. The first quarter GDP is estimated to rise only at 1.2 % based on latest figures. The things she is saying now, that employment and…Continue Reading →
What does one do when things don’t add up? In this Bernanke – Trump market, apparently you delete the half of the equation that screws up the answer. S&P 500 Earnings Expectations Like yesterday on CNBC, I heard a young analyst/trader,…Continue Reading →
Sorry Janet, you don’t count in terms of adding your name to the rally, you have just been the water girl keeping this artificial environment alive, and Barack, we will leave your name out as you have been the unwitting…Continue Reading →
Two Big Presumptions So far, since the election the markets have traded on two presumptions: That the rhetoric will be enacted, That the programs and direction will be successful. What could go Wrong? First, the Democrats have gained a few…Continue Reading →