Trumpism Has Hit a Wall

Two Big Presumptions

So far, since the election the markets have traded on two presumptions:

  1. That the rhetoric will be enacted,
  2. That the programs and direction will be successful.

What could go Wrong?

  1. First, the Democrats have gained a few seats in the Senate,
  2. Some Establishment Republicans may help block legislation,
  3. China may forcefully react to new trade direction,
  4. The transition needed from the FED’s artificial market low interest rate policies may be difficult at best,
  5. The consumer is key, the fourth quarter GDP number direction is going to be good, but it was based on the consumer’s presumption of a Clinton win,
  6. Government Debt is now going to go on the front burner,
  7. Trickle Down will probably be shown to be the sham it always has been for the middle class,
  8. The bottom class, which is not really affected by the economic rhetoric, will continue to be even more pressed against the wall as the government cushions are removed,
  9. The infrastructure spending proposed may not give much uplift, as the low interest rates of the past 5 years have created a glut of commercial construction, so workers will just move to roads, bridges, ect .
  10. And Horror of Horrors, the recount could make Hillary the winner, I hope not as I would like to see Trickle Down proven once and for all, for what it is.

Bottomline

The Macro direction of the stock market triggered in October still points lower in spite of the spike up after the election.

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