So Much to Say, Where Does One Start ?
So here goes. 1) We are in the very early stages of a change in the Macros. 2) Lets look at oil first. Its Macro cycle started into a Bull wave in May 1996, peaked in October 2008, and will…Continue Reading →
Big Picture
A New World is Evolving
Deflationary forces are quiet and deep. Consumer balance sheets for those under the $ 100,000 median are stagnant with borrowing taking up the slack. Cheap gas will help. We are living in a world where more is being spent on…Continue Reading →
Lots of Volatility on the Rollover
The portfolio returns here illustrate the kinds of movement you see around Central Bank artificial money efforts.
The Dead Consumer
If I thought that 80 percent of what President Obama outlined in the State of the Union message would be implemented, I would get bullish on the US economy. That does not mean that I would get bullish on the…Continue Reading →
Pivotal Week in a Pivotal Month in a Pivotal Year
All eyes are on China and Europe this week, including the ECB and Greece. The questions are, how much pop to paper assets can more stimulus provide, and will they be able to put it together. It they don’t…Continue Reading →
Risk Off is Gaining Traction
The Risk On/Off charts which peaked in September, see our September 11 post, are gaining traction on the downside. This coupled with the June 20, 2014 downturn switch on oil are adding to pressure. The article titled Catch-22 located at…Continue Reading →
Thoughts,Things, on our Radar Today
Since the start of QE2 in November 2010, we have seen a complete transformation of markets based on a FED that believed/believes trickle down works. This has led to a number of outcomes: 1) The paper asset markets (i.e. stocks)…Continue Reading →
What Will 2015 Bring ??
This is the time of the year when market analysts like to forecast the coming year. In our case the post dated December 11th 2014, “Right or Wrong” does a good job of outlining the viewpoint of Eureka-Perspectives. If one were to come…Continue Reading →
A Theory that Deserves Discussion
Something to think about as the year comes to the end. 2014_12_29 The Clash of Civiliazations
88-55-22, These are the Major Oil Numbers
The current battle of the FED, in my opinion, is to try and stabilize the Oil markets. My contention remains that Oil is the second step in the Deflation scenario, Commodities were the first step. Oil’s major resistance is 88,…Continue Reading →