So Much to Say, Where Does One Start ?

So here goes.

1) We are in the very early stages of a change in the Macros.

2) Lets look at oil first. Its Macro cycle started into a Bull wave in May 1996, peaked in October 2008, and will be starting into the Bear Wave area in the next few weeks.  That means the bull wave lasted 18 years (1996-2014). Bear waves are much shorter usually, regardless of the market, so lets just say that it will last one third the time or 6 more years.  What is the take away, if you are a short term trader I am sure there will be a lot of little bull moves maybe like the one we are seeing now, but it will be a long time before a real Bull wave commences.  From a historical perspective, google Whale Oil market.

More thoughts later this week on other markets and sectors.