This morning we are seeing the backlash against the hotter economic numbers generated this week. CNBC suggested that it is the Revenge of Jamie Dimon as a response to his “the sky is falling spouts” have been ignored by the…Continue Reading →
Today, GDPNOW latest estimate for first quarter raised to 2.5 %. Core market drivers are in the Climate Change area, Chips. EV, Solar. The current hot areas where investors are hiding, like discretionary and travel will fade in my opinion….Continue Reading →
As long as average market rates stay below the early November lows of 4.121, higher rates are likely signaling better growth parameters. I am watching any production numbers coming out this coming week as well as updates on the GDPNOW…Continue Reading →
New growth economy back in focus. 30-05 YC back to working, model covered all hedges on opening. So much for one day of thinking bearish.
If you go back and take a look at the chart in our February 7 post, you will see that the macro picture is working off the 2009 low. To me this means markets have the potential to go higher…Continue Reading →
President Biden’s State of the Union was the public affirmation of what has been building for the past year. He has the energy and plan to get things done. I am hopeful that the energy of the message will filter…Continue Reading →
Recently I have been reading a book called “Signals”, which after reading some of it I see a bit of the thinking that drives Trump. Contrary to what many Democrats think and say, Trump is smarter than 99 percent of…Continue Reading →
What I am talking about here is the switch from hyped artificial markets, the kind of markets that we saw between August 2020 and January 2022, and the new demand markets which started evolving in May of 2022. I see…Continue Reading →
The big questions this weekend… Is it what I see, What I imagine, Or what I want? First, Covid produced a kind of forced mixed signal, lots of negatives yet a lot of government monetary aid. Now people seem to…Continue Reading →
I think; 1. Rates are not going down, but they also are not going up much, probably a range of 3.65 to 3.95 on the broad 2Y to 30 Y range average. 2. Economy is in a growth mode, a…Continue Reading →