Macro Picture is Decidedly Bullish…
If you go back and take a look at the chart in our February 7 post, you will see that the macro picture is working off the 2009 low. To me this means markets have the potential to go higher for at least 18-22 years, or 2027 to 2031.
The short term situation is what is tricky, especially the current lack of forcefulness out of the 4180 area on the SPX. I am on guard for the short term direction at the moment, the big money is still net short in my opinion with any nervous contingent having already covered shorts in the past week. This means that if anything bearish comes along they will try to pound the market. Today we are monitoring things to see if the S&P can clear the 4180 area and get into the 4200’s. If not, the model says to dump the speculative long part of the portfolio, the 3X long ETF’s. Also we are looking closely at the trigger for adding speculative short hedge ETF’s like SPXS and SQQQ. Our Climate change positions in EV’s and Solar will remain in the model portfolio.
Adding to the trickiness of the current situation, the Bond market to me is leaning towards recession fears in the short-term. The 30 to 5 year curve is not showing the kind of strength that is supportive of the growth scenario, we may need to re-group.
Also. the model is setting up the trigger for shorting OIL and Gold, probably come today.