T-Bond Chart Objective Hit
June T-Bond futures are now the lead month. For a long time we have been looking for the long term charts to hit 166 on Bonds. Because of a supposed aberration in availability of Bonds the June contract has been trading at a huge premium to the March. With June T-bonds now the lead month the 166 number has been hit, a few days ago. That is one of the reasons we sold out our March Bond positions a couple of days ago.
It is a good chance that the over 30 year T-Bond rally is over. Charts don’t care about the reason.
We are sitting on a lot of cash now, still long the dollar, short commodities and short Oil. In the EAH fund we have sold out our long stock positions and are waiting for a Macro short signal in stocks. We remain short stocks in the EGH fund.
Because of the long trail of data involved in a Macro sell signal for the S&P it is difficult to know for sure because it involves both time and price, but if it occurs it the next few days a close under 2064 could be enough to trigger the first Macro sell signal since January 2008. If I would have known it was going to be this easy, I would have relaxed for the last 4 years.