Follow The Trend or Not
As they say, “the trend is your friend until it is not”. With that said we will set aside the meltdown risk window of 30 to 60 percent on stocks which could happen at any time Instead we will look…Continue Reading →
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Round One
We are talking about the Macro environment which depending on your criteria, started in 1980 with supply side trickle down economics, or 2011 with Bernanke’s QE 2, 2017 with Trump’s tax cut for the top, or 2019 with Powell’s capitulation…Continue Reading →
The Fang / Nasdaq Dilemma
A Special Report: Pundits these days scoff at talk of a massive, maybe 40 to 70 percent decline in stock prices in the coming year. A look at the FANG / Nasdaq stocks illustrate how easy that could happen. All…Continue Reading →
Are there limits to anticipation?
Economy is kind of at a standstill. Money that is being lost in the economy is being barely offset by the FED, and the current so called stimulus bill held up by and now ok’d by Trump is not going…Continue Reading →
Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays
Enjoy Christmas Eve 2020.
A Sense of Balance is slowly Returning
We are just starting to see some glimpses of what a more balanced economy will look like. The lopsided approach that has dominated the country since 1980, when Reagan started the supply side, trickle down movement, is ending, albeit with…Continue Reading →
Here is the test of the Reflation Story
As you know I do not believe the reflation story is going to happen from here. In reality it started in the summer of 2019 when interest rates were pushed down to ridiculously low levels and is now ending. Will…Continue Reading →
What if the Dollar Bottomed last night
Here is the chart of the dollar and the successful retest of the March 2009 high at 89.63. Last nights low was 89.73. March 2009 was the start of the S&P run, does this mean the stock market has run…Continue Reading →
Nothing left but Surprises
With the FED meeting behind us, they affirming what we already knew, Zero interest rates forever. And two of the big guys, Paul Tudor Jones and Ray Dalio saying it is ok to putt money into something that has no…Continue Reading →
What would happen?
I keep being asked, What would happen if we had a Portfolio Insurance type panic now with the market massively overbought. Here is our S&P Forecast Model in which I inserted the 1987 crash pattern and the short term cycle…Continue Reading →