A lot of information has spewed forth during the first 100 days of Trump. 2025 Forecast Update; With the first quarter real numbers on GDP, monetary numbers and prices now out, I am updating the January 7th 2025 forecast piece…Continue Reading →
Forward monetary market driver changes this morning, i.e. interest rates, yield curve, dollar, are bringing a negative vibe to the market equation. The only thing that can overcome that negativity is animal spirits, i.e. the Market Multiplier, initially this measure…Continue Reading →
I anticipate that with the GDP report this week and the employment report tomorrow, along with weak consumer sentiment, that we are entering a 90 day period of digestion of a weak economy. We have seen the panic selling period,…Continue Reading →
The Climate Tech Model reapplied all its hedges with SQQQ, Nasdaq at 19926, up 4.7 % from where it lifted hedges yesterday. This remains a volatile affair.
This seems like a risky reaction to a negative GDP report, NDQ was at 19025, but it seems like the data does support a market mentality that sees bad data as a reason to look at the speculative aspects of…Continue Reading →
As the U.S. economy heads into a reality check on the first 100 days it is becoming apparent that stocks want to focus on how lower consumer confidence, employment and production will make it more likely that the Fed will…Continue Reading →
The markets now face a tough decision. The stock market drivers are positive, even softening gold seems ready to join the party. But macroeconomic drivers are on an opposite course at the moment, and consumer polling sentiment is terrible. The…Continue Reading →
Today we saw a text book example of short-term volatility trading. Using the 30 min short term trading bars we saw levels between .70 and .75 hit today. Support levels in this kind of volatility, i.e. volatility with an upward…Continue Reading →
I keep saying, the RUT / NDQ ratio tells the story. 0.1050 on a close will be a big deal. We have seen 0.1039 in the past day, sitting at 0.1029 at the moment, 11:00 AM CDT. For reasons I…Continue Reading →
On July 15, 1970, my first day as a cattle trader on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, my mentor said to me, keep it simple, the market only has three choices, up, down, or sideways, so anytime you feel overwhelmed, back…Continue Reading →